This page displays real-time data from multiple sources The wording on this site is improved by AI applications Use CTRL-F5 to refresh. Updated on 2024-07-26 09:44z
What is Radio Propagation?
Radio propagation is the process of transmitting radio waves from one location to another.
What are Propagation Conditions?
The term "propagation conditions" refers to the quality and dependability of radio waves transmitted between two points on Earth.
What is HF Radio? HF is a high-frequency radio wave ranging from 3 MHz to 30 MHz (100 to 10 meters), sometimes known as "shortwaves".
HF communications via skywaves are making a comeback after 45 years of decline (1975–2020). Using satellites for global communications is too expensive, and the space systems are vulnerable. Technological advances like digital voice, ALE, and spread spectrum improve reliability at a lower cost. This is why there is a growing interest in skywaves.
The advantages of skywaves:
Skywaves travel longer distances and can reach places not covered by satellites.
No Infrastructure is required.
Low-power wireless transmitters are sufficient over very long distances.
HF bands play a vital role in various fields, including aviation, emergency services, maritime communication, and military operations. These frequencies enable communication over vast distances, often surpassing thousands of kilometers, making them indispensable in situations where traditional communication methods are unavailable or unreliable.
During emergencies, such as natural disasters or large-scale accidents, traditional communication networks may be severely damaged or overloaded. In these situations, the HF band becomes crucial for emergency services to establish communication links and coordinate rescue efforts. HF radios can be quickly deployed to affected areas, allowing first responders to communicate and provide assistance to those in need, regardless of the distance or terrain.
The term "HF band conditions" refers to the quality and dependability of HF radio signals transmitted between two points on Earth by skywaves and how the ionosphere's dynamic affect them.
Utilize more than one option to gain a comprehensive understanding of radio communication conditions, as no single method can provide all the necessary information.
Years ago, we manually scanned HF bands using analog receivers. It took us a long time to determine the communication conditions in each band.
Nowadays, FT8 allows real-time data viewing on monitors on active stations within a specific band. Platforms like PSKReporter provide insights into band openings.
Signals were analyzed by WSJT-X v2.6.1 software (running on a PC) and reported online to PSKReporter that generated the map shown below:
PSKReporter map generated on April 2, 2023 A screenshot of PSK-Reporter with manualy added notes. Receiver: Malachite DSP v3, Antenna: Mag Loop, Sofware: WSTJ v 2.6.1
2.2 Real-time HF Bands Monitoring using Receivers accessed via internet: WebSDR / KiwiSDR
The majority of these stations offer waterfall and spectrum displays, as well as the option to record audio.
Alternatively choose a remoted receiver from WebSDR / KiwiSDR lists or the KiwiSDR Map (below)
2.3 Real-time HF Band Monitoring using Beacons
It's a good idea to listen to NCDXF Beacon Network whenever you plan to hunt DX stations.
Eighteen worldwide beacons shown on the map below share five bands 20, 17, 15, 12 and 10 m and take it in terms.
All these stations use a standardized antenna and output power levels.
All 18 beacons use the same five frequencies: 14.100, 18.110, 21.150, 24.930, and 28.200 MHz. It is recommended that you spend some time on one of these frequencies, listening to transmissions from all around the world. This option may indicate where the bands are now open.
The IDs of all the 18 stations are callsigns in CW and then a short carrier decreasing in four power levels: 100, 10, 1, and 0.1 Watts. If you can hear the 0.1W that means that propagation is really good or you're in a really low noise location. Put these frequencies in your receiver's memory channel and you'll be able to flick quickly between them.
While you're on 28 MHz tune up between 28.2 and 28.3. There's a lot of additional beacons all on their own frequencies operating full time.
2.4 Real-time Band Conditions - Using online / internet services
Click on the map above to see the global radio ham activity for the previous 15 minutes on 11 ham bands (1.8–54 MHz). Data is gathered from online sources: WSPRnet, Reverse Beacon Network (CW, FT4, FT8), and DX Cluster. JavaScript is required to view the graphics.
PSK Reporter is an amateur radio signal reporting and spotting network
WSPR is a weak-signal radio communication protocol used for sending and receiving low-power transmissions to test propagation paths on the MF and HF bands. Links: WSPRnetmap, WSPR Rocks, WSPR Live, etc.
Real-time forecasting of HF band conditions using maps on Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUF) optimizes long-distance communication, minimizes interference, and ensures reliable and efficient utilization of the HF spectrum.
Such apps and tools can simulate the current ionospheric condition and its effect on HF radio waves using mathematical models, data collected from recent Solar Activity, Space Weather reports, and real-time sensing of the ionosphere. All these topics are covered below.
Multiple methods and tools should be used and their outputs compared to gain a more complete understanding of the propagation conditions, because no single method or tool can provide all of the information needed to make an accurate assessment.
How are propagation conditions estimated?
HF propagation conditions are evaluated using MUF determined from Ionosondes measurements.
How can we predict propagation conditions? Predicting propagation conditions for HF radio involves collecting physical parameters and using mathematical models, considering the time of day, season, Sunspots, and ionospheric conditions.
HF propagation prediction is a technique used to assess the quality of radio transmissions between Earth-specific locations via the ionosphere.
There are some general rules for predicting at what time you might find band openings and in what direction:
Pre-dawn: 40 and 80 meters (for ambitious hams)
Sunrise: 20 meters usually opens to ranges of 3,000-6000 km
Late Morning: 10 and 15 meters may open to ranges over 10,000 km
Afternoon: 20 meters may open to trans-equatorial destinations
Evenings: 40 meters (this can be a real opportunity for DX)
Late Evenings: 80 meters (openings can last awhile allowing for rag chewing)
160 meters opens even later for those with large full-size antennas
The difference between forecasting and prediction is that forecasting explicitly adds a temporal dimension. Forecast is a time-based prediction, so it is better suited to dealing with time series data.
Why do we need propagation forecasts?
We need forecasts of HF radio propagation because the state of the ionosphere changes constantly and affects the performance of HF radio communication. By predicting the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) and other factors, we can choose the best frequency bands and times to communicate with a desired location. Forecasts may help prepare for situations where HF radio signals are blocked or distorted by space weather events associated with solar flares or geomagnetic storms.
The forecasts are used to select the best radio communication frequencies and times, plan antenna systems, and optimize communication link coverage.
How has the process of predicting HF propagation conditions changed over the past thirty years?
Incredible advances in space technology, SDR (Software-Designed Radio), and the internet have enabled us to study radio wave propagation in ways we never thought possible. Prior to the 1990s, propagation reports and charts were published in amateur radio magazines, but computer programs and online internet tools can now display propagation using real-time solar indices.
HF propagation basics
Chapter 4. HF Propagation Modes This chapter reviews the primary modes of high frequency (HF) radio propagation.
"Skip distance" is a zone of silence (dead zone, see the illustration below) between the ground wave and sky wave where there is no reception. Where h is the height, fMUF is maximum usable frequency and fc denotes the critical frequency.
Earth's weather and space weather both affect the ionosphere, a spectacle of charged particles.
"Ionospheric clouds" move at heights between 150 km and above 400 km at different speeds and directions, with irregularities in conductivity. See below a beautiful clip made by NASA.
Welcome to the Ionosphere courtesy NASA Goddard
The ionosphere is always changing.
The clip above illustrates the dynamic atmosphere—the dance of radio waves within a vibrant airglow. Solar storms intensify the ionosphere's beauty, while Earth's weather below adds to the unique destination.
The term "ionosphere" refers to the region of the atmosphere (60-700 km above the Earth's surface) where Solar radiationionizes gases.
Ionosphere (Thermosphere) is part Earth's Atmosphere
The Thermosphere is characterized by very high temperatures ranging from 550 to over 1100 degrees Kelvin, due to the ultraviolet solar radiation. The correlation with SF - Solar Radio Flux F10.7 (SF=50 yields 550 K, SF=200 yields 1150 K)
The Solar radiation generates free electrons in the ionosphere. The process is named "Ionization".
Generation of free electrons
HF radio waves from Earth to the ionosphere cause free electrons to oscillate and re-radiate, resulting in wave refraction with a refractive index similar to geometric optics with a refractive index.
The refraction of radio waves in the ionosphere is characterized by the critical frequency. This is the highest frequency at which radio waves reflect back to Earth. Higher frequencies escape into space.
Refraction of radio waves in the ionosphere The left two paths of signals demonstrate higher-frequency radio waves lost in space.
The D, E, and F "layers" are commonly used to depict the structure of the ionosphere, but this is not entirely accurate. Ionization exists throughout the ionosphere, with its level varying with altitude.
There is also a C region below them which has low ionization levels that don't affect HF radio propagation.
The term "region" is more appropriate than "layer".
The Ionosphere courtesy Andrew McColm, VK3FS
The ionosphere's regions fluctuate between day and night. How these regions affect HF propagation. How and when it was discovered.
It’s common to present the order of ionosphere regions affecting HF skywaves from the highest region downwards.
The ionospheric regions
The F-region (180-600 km) is responsible for long-distance HF propagation.
This region consists H+, He+ (ionizedHydrogen and Helium ) has the highest free-electron density up to 1012 electrons per m3 excited by solar radiation 10-100 nano-meter EUV. It splits during the day into sub-regions F1 and F2. It slowly dissipates after sunset.
The E-region (90-150 km) dissipates a couple of hours after sunset.
This region consists O2+ (ionizedOxygen) up to ~1011 electrons per m3 excited by solar radiation 1-10 nano-meter EUV.
During intense Sporadic E(Es) events (particularly near the equator) it reflects frequencies above 50 MHz.
The D-region is the lowest at 50-90 km above ground. It is effective only during daytime, blocking radio frequencies below the LUF from reaching the higher E and F regions. It dissipates at sunset.
Why does the density of free electrons increase sharply with height?
The density of free electrons is affected by the balance of two opposing processes, ionization and recombination (the capture of a free electron by a positive ion).
The F-region gets most of the UV radiation compared to the lower E and D regions, while the rate of electron-ion recombination is much faster at the lowest D region (due to the higher gas density). As a result, the free-electron density of the highset F-region (at noon) is significanly higher than that of the E and D regions.
At most, only one thousandth (1/1000) of the neutral atmosphere is ionized.
See below an illustration of complex propagation modes such as F Skip / 1F1E, E-F Ducted, F Chordal, E-F ocasional and sporadic E.
An illustration of Complex Propagation Modes D-region ignored
Provided by the Australian Space Weather Services
Sporadic E (Es) is an unusual form of radio waves' propagation using the E-region of the Earth's ionosphere, which normally does not refract radio waves. It reflects radio waves off relatively small "plasma clouds"
in the lower E region, located at altitudes of about 95~150 km.
Equatorial sporadic E (within ±10° of the geomagnetic equator) is a regular midday local time. At polar latitudes, however, sporadic E can accompany auroras and associated disturbed magnetic conditions and is called auroral E. At mid-latitudes, the Es propagation often supports occasional long-distance communication during the approximately 6 weeks centered on the summer solstice at VHF bands, which under normal conditions can only propagate by line-of-sight.
7.4 -
Critical frequencies relevant to skywave-propagation: foF2, MUF, OWF and LUF
7.4.1 The critical frequency (foF2) is the highest frequency below which a radio wave is reflected by the F2-region at vertical incidence.
Vertical reflection from F2 region (layer)
The critical frequency is depndent on the collision frequency of the free-electrons and their density:
Where fc is the critical frequency and Nmax is the electron density.
If the transmitted frequency is higher than the plasma frequency of the ionosphere, then the electrons cannot respond fast enough, and they are not able to re-radiate the signal.
Statistically, between 2005 and 2007, the critical frequency varied from 1.8 MHz to 11 MHz, with an average of 7.5 MHz. The daily critical frequencies range from 6.8 MHz to 12 MHz.
7.4.2 The Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) is the highest radio frequency reflected by the ionosphere at a given incident angle.
MUF illustration
The MUF sets the conditions of propagation between certain places.
The MUF is a function of foF2: MUF = foF2 / cosθ, where θ is the incident angle.
As a rule of thumb, the MUF is approximately 3-4 times the critical frequency .
NVIS provides the solution for the dead zone (between groundwave and skip). It is the only solution for communication coverage in hilly and/or jungle areas over short distances of a few hundred kilometers.
An illustration: How NVIS provides communications within a hilly area.
Typical operating frequencies are 2-4 MHz at night and 4-8 MHz during day.
NVIS requires suitable antennas (like a low dipole at hight of 0.1-0.25 wavelengths) to improve vertical radiation and reduce lower-angle radiation, contrary to what is customary for long-range communication.
NVIS offers enhanced resistance to fading (constant signal level), and minimal attenuation, making it suitable for low transmit power levels and omnidirectional coverage, allowing flexibility in setup and placement.
The greyline is a narrow band around the Earth that separates day and night. Improved long-distance communications are possible on the lower HF bands for a brief period at dawn and dusk.
Why is radio propagation better along the greyline?
The absorbing D region is gone, but the reflecting F-region remains. This is because the F-region receives sunlight while the D-region does not.
Note: Because of the denser air at lower altitudes, the D-region dissolves before sunset, and ion recombination is faster.
The height of the F and D regions is exaggerated in comparison to Earth dimensions.
An example of a grey-line map
Some radio operators use specialized greyline map to predict when the grey line will pass over their location, as well as the best frequencies and modes of propagation to apply at that time.
Overall, greyline propagation is a fascinating and useful phenomenon that has the potential to open up exciting opportunities for long-distance radio communication.
Regional HF Propagation Conditions provide a detailed picture of the conditions that individual operators are likely to experience.
The regional conditions are based on the LUF, MUF and OTF between two locations.
The ionosonde (invented in 1925) is an "HF radar" that emits short pulses of radio radiation into the ionosphere in order to determine optimal frequencies for HF communication.
How does it work?
The highest frequency that the ionosphere can reflect vertically is known as critical frequency (foF2).
Ionosonde probes the F2-region
Typical ionodonde modes are vertical and oblique:
The ionosonde, also known as a chirpsounder, sweeps the HF range from 2 to 30 MHz. The transmitted (Tx) frequency increases at a rate of about 100 kHz per second and is digitally modulated in 25 kHz increments. Matching receivers (Rx) detect and analyze echo signals.
The ionosonde measures the time it takes for reflected pulses to arrive after being transmitted. The height (calculated from the time delay) is plotted versus frequencies. This recording, known as an ionogram, shows the plasma density distribution in ionospheric regions at various altitudes (48–600 km).
Every 15 minutes, real-time data from ionosonde stations throughout the world is reported via the internet.
Some stations aren't always active, and significant regions of the globe are uncovered yet with ionosonde stations, as shown on the above map.
An ionogram is a visual representation of the height of the ionospheric reflection of a specific HF radio frequency.
A typical ionogram E, F1 and F2 indicate ionospheric regions
Ionograms usually contain a dual representation:
A series of (more or less) horizontal lines indicating the virtual height, at which the (amplitude modulated) pulse will be echoed as a function of the operating frequency;
A curve in vertical direction representing the density of free-electrons per cubic centimeter, as a function of height.
MUF - maximum usable frequency OWF - optimum working frequency EMUF - E-region maximum usable frequency LUF - lowest usable frequency
A simulation of parameters for a 5KW transmitter link
between San Francisco, CA and Honolulu, HI (Oct 2002),
a presentation of Naval Postgraduate School.
Free-electron densities are greater and higher in summers compared to winters and near the equator vs. the poles, due to increased solar EUV radiation. As a result, HF propagation conditions on the bands above 10 MHz are better in the summer and closer to the equator, whereas propagation conditions on the bands below 10 MHz are better in the winter and at high latitudes.
The dynamics of ionospheric regions near the equator and mid-latitudes
See below six online maps of regional propagation conditions, all based on recent Ionosonde measurements:
Greyline map with a few regional MUF & solar indices updated every 3 hours; Provided by N0NBH
MUF 3000 Km map - information about HF propagation conditions at a glance provided by KC2G updated every 15 minutes | There is also an animated version.
NVIS Map shows wolrdwide distribution of foF2provided by KC2G updated every 15 minutes
The next 3 NVIS maps are provided by the Australian Space Waether Service (AGSWS) updated every 15 minutes
Real-time MUF 3000 Km Propagation Mapupdated every 15 minutes
The map below was designed by Andrew, KC2G for amateur radio operators, and is updated every 15 minutes. A radio path of 3,000 Km is being considered for unification.
This map was developed between 2018 and 2021 to assist radio amateurs in finding the best times and frequencies for contacts by displaying HF Propagation conditionsat a glance.
However, this tool is limited; see notes below
The colored regions of this map, which are rebounded by Iso-Frequency contours, illustrate the Maximum Usable Frequency that is expected to bounce off of the ionosphere on a 3000 Km path. The grey line position is also included.
The ham bands are designated by iso-frequency contours: 5.3, 7, 10.1, 14, 18, 21, 24.8, and 28 Mhz.
For example, if a given area on the map is greenish and lies between the contours labeled "10" and "14," the MUF in that location is around 12 MHz.
The raw data is MUF calculated from data collected by ionosondes, which are represented by numbered colored discs that show their location. A number inside a disc indicates the calculated 3000km MUF from the critical ionospheric frequency, foF2. The information from the stations is compiled by Mirrion 2 and GIRO, and processed by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model (produced by a joint task group of COSPAR and URSI.
The MUF along a path between any two locations shows the possibility of long-hop DX between those points on a given band. For example, if the MUF is 12MHz, then 30 meters band and longer will work, but 20 meters band and shorter won't. For long multi-hop paths, the worst MUF anywhere on the path is what matters. For single-hop paths shorter than 3000 Km, the usable frequency will be less than the indicated MUF. As one gets closer to vertical, i.e. NVIS, the usable frequency drops to the Critical ionospheric frequency, foF2 (as shown in the next map).
Additional Notes:
The MUF(3000km) map shows the estimated MUF, calculated from ionograms. Inaccuracy can result from the limited coverage of innosonde stations.
Therefore the map is based on data interpolation. The algorithm aims to find the MUF (or FoF2) at scattered points globally, but achieving accurate extrapolation from few data points is challenging. The guessing process is better in areas close to measurement stations, but uncertainty increases in distant areas.
The accuracy of commercial radio services is insufficient, because:
Stations may provide inaccurate or disagreeing data, leading to peculiar results in an attempt to align measurements. Stations may go off-line or re-appear, causing unexpected changes in the model's global picture due to the limited number of data points initially used.
Real-time ionosonde data sharing has been discontinued by countries like Russia, China, Japan, the US Space Force, and NOAA in recent years. Some ionosondes are only available through NOAA, and if GIRO outages occur, maps on this site may stop updating.
Additionally there is uncertainty associated with predicting the ionosphere's state using vertical sounding data.
The "MUF(3000km)" project is the result of research and development by Andrew D Rodland - KC2G, which is based on an earlier work by Matt Smith - AF7TI. WWROF financing and data from ionosonde operators all over the world, provided by GIRO and NOAA made it feasible. See also Acknowledgments.
Read more about this open source project.
Read more about the open source software and models.
The colored regions of this map, which are rebounded by Iso-Frequency contours, illustrate the critical frequency that is expected to bounce off of the ionosphere at near vertical angle. The ham bands (160, 80, 60, 40, 30 ,20m) are designated by iso-frequency contours: 1.8, 3.5, 5.3, 7, 10.1, and 14 Mhz.
foF2, as measured by ionosondes, is the raw data that powers the site. Colored discs indicate the location of stations. A number inside each disc represents the critical frequency, foF2.
Another NVIS map provided by the Australian Government Space Weather Services is updated every 15 minutes. It displays contours of the critical ionospheric frequency - foF2. There are a few differences between this map and the KC2G map (above), mainly due to the choice of frequencies for the contours. The KC2G map highlights ham bands. The following map, however, is designed for commercial use.
Click on the map to view the source page. There is further information.
T Index Map - foF2 is provided by Australian Government Space Wheather Services
This index can be any value, however it is usually limited to a range of -50 to 200. Low numbers suggest the usage of lower HF frequencies and vice versa.
The plot above shows a near real-time foF2 anomaly map. The anomalies are calculated by subtracting the median foF2 for the last days from the currently observed foF2. The current foF2 and dataset are used to calculate the median foF2 the identical time of day and geographical attributes. The anomaly differences are in units of MHz. The regions in red indicate significantly lower frequencies compared to the last 30-day medians. One may choose an animated display that shows changes in anomalies for the last 1-7 days.
Recent foF2 measurements at various locations of Australia, New Zealand and East Antarctica foF2 Plots courtesy Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Chapter 9. Ionospheric Dynamics - instability, disturbances and storms
This chapter is under preparation. At this point, two topics are briefly covered.
How do "ionospheric clouds" affect HF propagation?
The dynamic ionosphere causes signal fading over time. Small-scale irregularities in the ionosphere are observed at all levels, with periodic motions attributed to neutral atmospheric waves interacting with ionized components in the upper atmosphere. While understanding is limited, the research promises short-term changes.
Additionally the ionosphereic regions are disrupted by (1) The chaotic solar activity and (2) The tropospheric weather from far below.
What effect does tropospheric weather have on the ionosphere?
Storms, hurricanes, and strong wind patterns can all temporarily alter the TEC caused by EUV solar radiation.
In other words, the ionosphere and troposphere are coupled by a variety of mechanisms.
For instance, a lightning storm can cause electrodynamic interaction, as shown in the following figure.
Electrodynamical Coupling of the Troposphere with the Ionosphere
Sprites - Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) The different forms of Transient Luminous Events. Credit: NOAA
There are other complex mechanisms that couple the troposphere to the ionosphere. We won't go into detail at this point.
In conclusion, "Ionospheric clouds" that develop as a result of the coupling between the troposphere and ionosphere may affect skywave HF propagation.
The Digisonde Directogram was developed to identify ionospheric plasma "clouds".
Digisonde Directogram
It consists of multi-beam ionosondes, which measure echoes coming from various locations.
Seven ionosonde beams (one vertically and six diagonally) are used to generate the ionograms. The end result is an extended ionogram of "plasma clouds" as they drift over a Digisonde station.
Sample directogram for Cachimbo station from 12 UT Oct 10 to 12 UT Oct 11, 2002.
Blue color means ionospheric motion from west to east.
Probing traveling F region ionospheric disturbances
The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network is an international network of 35 HF radars (8 MHz–22 MHz) located in the northern and southern hemispheres.
SuperDARN site in Holmwood SDA, Saskatoon
The radars are designed to study F region Ionospheric dynamics, instability, disturbances and storms. The research covers geospace phenomena, including field-aligned currents, magnetic reconnection, and mesospheric winds. It tests theories of polar cap expansion and contraction under changing IMF conditions, observing large-scale responses to substorms. The collaboration includes various institutions.
Other ionospheric disturbances include "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances" (SID) and "Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances" (TID):
9.2.1 SID (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances) is any one of several ionospheric perturbations, resulting from abnormally high ionization/plasma density in the D region of the ionosphere and caused by x-ray solar flares and/or solar particle events. SIDs result in a sudden increase in radio-wave absorption that is most severe in the range of 1.8–10 MHz, and as a result, they often interrupt or interfere with telecommunications systems. These events are more likely to occur around solar maximum.
9.2.2 TID is (Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances) a wave-like structure passing through the ionosphere, altering the altitude and angle of refraction of sky waves. TIDs travel horizontally at 5–10 km/minute, with varying phases, amplitudes, and angles of arrival. Some originate in auroral zones or weather disturbances. Read also about probing TIDs.
Chapter 10.
Total Electron Content (TEC)
TEC is an important descriptive quantity - number of free-electrons integrated between two points along a one-meter-squared-cross-section tube. It is calculated from real-time foF2 data measured by ionosondes.
It is a reliable indicator of how the ionization level of the ionosphere influences the propagation conditions of radio wave transmissions.
TEC is strongly affected by solar activity.
Tropospheric weather may affect TEC: The troposphere and ionosphere are separate atmospheric regions with distinct functions.
However they do interact through various processes research model. Tropospheric lightning may induced changes in total electron content, and consequently affect propagation conditions.
Thunderstorms can also worsen the signal-to-noise ratio, in particular the lower HF bands i.e., tropospheric weather may affect propagation conditions of the HF bands, especially in the tropical regions.
Thus, monitoring and modeling TEC patterns and variations allows us to better understand and prepare for the constantly changing band condtions.
TEC data is gathered from thousands of ground-based GPS receivers around the globe.
It is characterized by observing carrier phase delays of received radio signals transmitted from satellites located above the ionosphere, often using GPS satellites.
TEC distributions between seasons can be compared to each other. Data analysis showed qualitative trends relating the spring and fall equinoxes as well as the summer and winter solstices.
TEC/TECU provides the number of free-electrons per square meter (x1016) for a shell height of 400 km. This map is based on measurements collected from ionosonde stations around the world, it provides near real-time information and data service for the current state of the ionosphere, related forecasts, and warnings.
Credit: Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC) of the European Space Agency`s network of space weather services.
Global HF propagation conditions are the overall factors, such as Solar Activity, the ionosphere's current condition, and in particular the average global Ionization level of the F2-region that influence HF radio waves on a global scale.
Please keep in mind that regional conditions could vary significantly from the global conditions.
11.2 -
Global communication conditions versus Solar IndicesSN and SF Explained
The Extreme Ultra Violet radiation - EUV, creates the ionosphere, notably the F2-region.
However EUV is completely absorbed by the inonosphere and therefore never reaches the ground. That is why ground-based devices cannot measure the solar EUV directly.
Before the space age, scientists used two indirect markers to determine the ionization levels of the F2-region: 1. Sunspot Number and 2. Solar Flux. The Greater levels of both may suggest better propagation conditions.
SSN - Sunspot Number is a count of the number of dark spots seen on the sun.
Higher SSN values indicate improved conditions on 14 MHz band and above: SSN <50 poor propagation SSN >150 ideal propagation.
Solar Radio Flux SF refers to 2800 MHz (10.7 cm) radio emissions from the solar corona. Higher flux correlates with increased ionization of the E and F regions, enhancing HF radio propagation.
Approximate Correlation between SSN and SF
SSN
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
250
SF
67
83
102
124
148
172
196
219
240
273
Typical values of SF from poor to good propagation conditions
The undisturbed solar surface, developing active regions, and short-lived enhancements above the daily level all contribute to 10.7 cm radio flux. Levels are determined and corrected to within a few percent.
SF is quoted in terms of Solar Flux Units (SFU) = 10-22 Watts per metre2 per Hz.
The amount of solar radiation varies around the world. Even with correction factors added, it is difficult to obtain a consistent series of results. To overcome this, the reading from the Penticton Radio Observatory in British Columbia, Canada, is used as the benchmark. As a result, these numbers are extremely useful for predicting ionospheric radio propagation.
Radio telescopes in Ottawa (February 14, 1947-May 31, 1991) and Penticton, British Columbia, have routinely reported solar flux density at 2800 megahertz since June 1, 1991. Levels are determined every day at local noon (1700 GMT in Ottawa and 2000 GMT in Penticton) and then corrected to within a few percent for factors such as antenna gain, air absorption, bursts in progress, and background sky temperature.
Sunspot Number records been traced back to the 17th century. However, these records are open to subjective observation and interpretation.
The 10.7 cm wavelength (2800 MHz) also coincides with the daily number of sunspots. Both databases are interchangeable. The 10.7 cm Solar Flux data is more stable and reliable.
Geomagnetic activity is a solar-induced phenomenon that causes auroras and may disrupt the electrical power grid, spacecraft operations, and worldwide radio propagation. The geomagnetic indices measure this activity.
The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of Earth's magnetic field.
It measures the maximum fluctuations of horizontal magnetic components observed on a magnetometer at a specific geographic locations, compared to a "quiet day", during a three-hour interval.
The K-scale is quasi-logarithmic.
0 to 1: The Best Conditions for contacts from 20 meters and up
2 to 3: Good Conditions
4 to 5: Average Conditions
5 to 9: Poor Conditions
The A-index is a daily average level for geomagnetic activity.
The A-scale is linear:
1 to 5: Best conditions on 10-20 meters
6 to 9: Average conditions exist
10 and above: Poor conditions on 10-20 meters
A=400 indicates an extreme geomagnetic storm.
Conversions between Ap and Kp
Ap
0
4
7
15
27
48
80
132
207
400
Kp
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
The K and A indices are averaged over places and time, as follows:
K-index indicates a short-term (3 hours) instability of Earth Magnetic field, compared to a “quiet day”
Kp-index is a weighted place average of K from a network of 13 mid-latitude stations.
A-index indicates a longer-term (24 hours) instability of Earth's geomagnetic field (eight 3-hour values of K-indices)
Ap-index is 24 hours average (eight 3-hour values) of Kp.
The HPo (GFZ) indices:
The half-hourly Hp30 and hourly Hp60, developed at GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences), offer improved time resolutions compared to the three-hourly Kp. Together with the linear versions Ap30 and Ap60, they are collectively known as the HPo index, providing near-real-time data from about 13 geomagnetic observatories.
Solar events are classified into two types: quiet and active. Both affect HF skywave propagation conditions.
12.1 - Quiet sun
The sun emits Electromagnetic Radiation across a wide spectrum from Gama-rays to ELF (long radio waves).
The spectrum of solar electromagnetic radiation
The EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) is the most significant solar emission affecting terrestrial radio communications.
see below the measured spectral lines of a "quiet Sun" at Extreme Ultra Violet - EUV:
The EUV spectrum of the Sun, as measured by the SDO flown aboard a rocket in April 2008 (solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24)
Solar Spectra in the Extreme UV (10-120 nm) are capable of ionizing molecules (of earth ionosphere) by a single-step energy transfer.
This EUV light is emitted from the solar chromosphereCourtesy NASA, UCAR.
Peak (He II) EUV radiation at a wavelength of 30.4 nm is the most important solar emission contributing to half of the Ionospheric F-regionionization.
Lyman series-alpha Hydrogen-spectral-line at a wavelength of 121.6 nm ionizes Nitric Oxide (NO) at the D-region causing mostly
absorption of HF bands below 10 MHz.
12.2 - Active Sun
Solar activity is driven by the sun's magnetic field. It is caused by a helical dynamo in the sun's core and a chaotic dynamo near the surface.
The main solar phenomena associated with HF radio propagation on Earth are:
Sunspots (last from a few days to a few months); the number of spots varies in 11-year solar cycle (a deterministic chaos)
Flares (radiation bursts that last from tens of seconds to several hours)
Real-time SOHO images at EUV EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope)
images of the solar activity at several wavelengths
17.1nm Fe IX/X
19.5nm Fe XII
28.4nm Fe XIV
30.4nm Helium II
Solar Images courtesy of NASA, Solar Data Analysis Center
Click on a thumbnail to view a larger image (opens a new window).
Sometimes you may see the text "CCD Bakeout" instead of the images. For a technical explanation, read NASA CCD Bakeout explanation.
The Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) is an instrument on the SOHO spacecraft, used to obtain high-resolution images of the solar corona. The EIT is sensitive to EUV light at different wavelengths: 17.1, 19.5, 28.4 nm produced by ionized Iron, and 30.4 nm produced by Helium. The four images show the intensity distribution at these wavelengths, originating in the solar chromosphere and transition region.
The average and local intensity may vary by orders of magnitude on time scales of minutes to hours (unpredictable solar flares), days to months (predictable solar rotation), and years to decades (predictable Solar Cycle).
The following video chronicles solar activity from Aug. 12 to Dec. 22, 2022, as captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). From its orbit in space around Earth, SDO has steadily imaged the Sun in 4K x 4K resolution for nearly 13 years. This information has enabled countless new discoveries about the workings of our closest star and how it influences the solar system.
(B) Charged Particle Events are CME, SPE, and SEP, explained as follows.
Coronal mass ejections (CME) are huge flows of matter released from the sun with a larger mass compared to the quasi-constant solar wind.
Image of coronal mass ejection (CME) captured by NASA and ESA's SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Credit: NASA / GSFC / SOHO / ESA
Solar Particle Event (SPE) refer to protons ejected by the Sun during a solar flare or a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) include electrons, protons, and alpha particles that are ejected from the Sun at high speeds.
Reaching Earth they interact with the magnetosphere.
Guided by the earth magnetic field, these particles are attracted by the north and south magnetic poles.
Fadeouts and blackouts (of radio communication) can occur when highly charged particles reach Earth.
Energetic protons penetrate all the way down to the D-region, boosting ionozation levels close to the poles. Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) occurs because enhanced ionization significantly increases the absorption of radio signals traveling through the region. In extreme cases, HF radio signal absorption levels may reach tens of decibels, which is enough to absorb the majority (if not all) of transpolar transmissions. These blackout events often last between 24 and 48 hours.
Sunspots, unlike flares and CMEs, are statistically predicted. Sub-topic 12.5 discusses the Solar Cycle. Sub-topic 12.7 presents long term prediction for Radio Flux at 10.7 cm.
12.5 - Solar Cycle
Sunspots change in eleven year cycles. There are many sunspots during solar maximum and few during solar minimum.
Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression Source: The International Space Environment Service (ISES)
An animated overview of the Solar Cycle; published by NASA in May 2013
Solar magnetic flips are associated with solar maximum, when the number of sunspots is near its maximum, but it is often a gradual process that can take up to 18 months. The reversal will most likely take three to four months to complete.
The sunspot cycle begins when a sunspot appears on the Sun's surface at roughly 30 degrees latitude. The formation zone then travels toward the equator. At its maximal intensity, the Sun's global magnetic field has its polar regions reversed, as if a positive and negative end of a magnet were flipped at each of the Sun's poles.
There have been 24 (11-years) solar cycles since 1749. The magnetic field of the sun totally flipped every 11 years or so. In other words, the sun's north and south poles switched places. After two reversals (22 years), the solar magnetic field returns to its former orientation. This is known as "Hale cycle".
Understanding the complex interactions between solar magnetic fields, sunspots, and the solar cycle is crucial for comprehending the Sun's dynamic behavior and its impact on Earth, specifically HF propgation conditions.
The Current 25th Cycle began in 2020. The number of sunspots observed far exceeds predictions (see the graph below).
Sunspot Number Progression during Solar Cycles 24 and 25
The recent Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
Solar flux like sunspot number can be also used to show the observed and predicted Solar Cycle.
Solar Cycle Notable Events
In the 19th century, more than 150 years ago, extreme events had been observed.
The sun is getting angry; Should you really worry about solar flares? (August 2023)
A glob of plasma and radiation that was blasted by an unexplained explosion on the sun's far side is expected to crash with Mars.
According to researchers, if the solar storm strikes the Red Planet, it may cause weak UV auroras and even shred a portion of the Martian atmosphere.
Comparison of the recent Solar Cycles:
The current solar cycle (25) is stronger than the previous cycle (24) but weaker than the three previous cycles (21-23). Graph presented by Jan Alvestad, https://www.solen.info/
North-South Sunspot Asymmetries
Previous research has found north-south asymmetries for solar activity. These data point to some decoupling between the two hemispheres during the evolution of the solar cycle, which is consistent with dynamo theories. So yet, only little data are available for the two hemispheres independently for the most important solar activity metric, sunspot numbers. Below see an example:
Hemispheric Sunsopt Number 1950-2021 provided by SIDC - Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, Royal Observatory of Belgium
Solar Cycle - radio emissions may indicate complex processes
Multi-frequency (VHF-SHF) radio bursts superimposed on a persistent background characterize solar flares:
Picture Source: Patrick McCauley Mccauley.pi, CC BY-SA 4.0
Solar flares are also characterized by radio wave radiation at different frequencies
Different sunspot cycles can have different radio burstdistributions at 245 MHz.
That is to say that the sunspot cycles can vary and that they may not be considered identical.
Solar Synoptic Map Forecasters at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center use synoptic maps to view the various characteristics of the solar surface on a daily basis. They create a snapshot of the features of the Sun each day by drawing the various phenomena they see, including active regions, coronal holes, neutral lines (the boundary between magnetic polarities), plages and filaments, and prominences. This map is a valuable tool for assessing the conditions of the sun and making the appropriate forecast for those conditions.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center predicts monthly sunspot number and 10.7 cm radio flux. The Sunspot Number indicates the number of sunspots visible on the solar surface, whereas the 10.7 cm Radio Flux quantifies the solar radio emission at a 2800 MHz. A combination of observational data, analytical methods, and AI techniques contributes to predicting solar flux.
There are two recommended sources:
Predicted sunspot number and Radio Flux at 10.7 cm
are provided by NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
This is a multi-year (2022-2040) forecast of the monthly Sunspot Number and the monthly F10.7 cm radio flux.
The Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
27-Day Outlook of 10.7 cm Sun Radio Flux and the Earth Geomagnetic Indices prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
The 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table , issued Mondays by 1500 UTC, is a numerical forecast of three key solar-geophysical indices; the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the planetary A index, and the largest daily K values. A complete summary of weekly activity and 27-day forecasts since 1997, plus an extensive descriptive, are online as the weekly.
On the right side (of the above picture), you may see an illustration of the Magnetosphere, which protects Earth from Solar Wind. The magnetosphere is a part of a dynamic, interconnected system that responds to solar, planetary, and interstellar conditions. It is disturbed when solar wind interacts with the space environment surrounding Earth.
The Lagrange point L1 is of interest because a sattlite placed at L1 can keep pace with the Earth as it orbits the Sun, always staying on a line between the Earth and the Sun.
Animation of a satellite trapped at the L1 point of the Sun-Earth-Moon gravitational system. Published by Space Weather Live
Definition of Space Weather Brazilian SWS: "There is no full agreement among all the members of the international communities on the definition of space weather. Therefore, they list the definitions of space weather according to some organizations."
The solar wind is a stream of charged particles emitted by the sun's corona to outer space.
Solar winds cause charged particles to move along a magnetic field to Earth's poles, resulting in the aurora.
The figure above is an illustration of the solar wind reaching the Earth's magnetosphere. It shows how the solar wind rearranges the magnetosphere, compressesing the magnetic field on the side facing the sun, while elongating it on the opposite (far) end.
It is impossible to exactly predict when the solar wind will increase or decrease, but there is some correlation with sunspots and solar flares.
Strong solar winds known as CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) can trigger geomagnetic storms, as seen in 1989 in Canada, with aurora visible in southern regions like Texas and Florida.
How long does it take for Solar Wind to reach earth?
The charged particles escape the sun's gravity at speeds ranging from 200 to 800 kilometers per second. They are made up of electrons (~47%), protons (~47%), and alpha particles (~5%).
The electrons are the first to reach Earth. During a coronal mass ejection (CME), however, energetic charged particles travel at higher speed. Electrons may arrive 20 to 30 minutes after the storm begins, whereas heavier particles such as protons arrive in a day and alpha particles can take up to four days. See the recent solar wind.
Variations in solar wind velocity are associated with waves and turbulence, with higher-speed streams undergoing larger fluctuations. Scientists classify solar wind based on a variety of variables, including speed, density, pressure, energy per particle, and other characteristics.
Understanding the characteristics and behavior of the solar wind is crucial for studying space weather and its effects on HF radio propagation.
13.3 - The Magnetosphere and Earth Magnetic field
Geomagnetic conditions refer to the state of the magnetosphere created by the Earth's magnetic field as affected by solar activity.
The magnetosphere is a "magnetic bubble" that surrounds Earth and protects us from the Solar Wind.
Its shape depends on the pressure of the solar wind and the orientation of the Earth’s magnetic field.
Earth Magnetic field known also as the geomagnetic field
The Earth Magnetic field is generated by currents caused by the circulation of molten iron in the inner core and nickel convection currents in the outer core.
A Geomagnetic Storm is a disturbance in the magnetosphere that may trigger auroras.
Illustration of Geonagnetic storms as seen from earth close to the polar regions:
Public-domain photographs show electrical discharge in ionospheric regions near Earth's polar regions.
The Solar Terrestrial Probe monitors Solar Wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field.
Color schemes: Green indicates that values in this range are unlikely to disturb the near-Earth space environment. Yellow indicates that values in this range may contribute to disturbances, and Red indicates that values in this range are likely to drive disturbances.
Put the cursor over each image to see an explanation.
Ptn - Proton Flux / Elc - Electron Flux Density, both impact E-region
Aurora indicates the strength of the ionization of the F-region in the polar regions.
Aur Lat - Aurora Latitude estimated lowest latitude
Solar Wind speed
Mag Bz - Magnetic Field z perpendicular to Earth's Ecliptic Plane
S Noise S-units: This value shows how much noise, in S Units, is being generated
by the interaction between the solar wind and the earth’s geomagnetic activity.
The higher the numbers, the greater the noise.
GeoMag Earth`s Geomagnetic Field stablility based on K-Index. Levels:
Very Quiet, Quiet, Unsettled, Active, Minor Storm, Major Storm, Severe Storms, or Extreme Storms
13.6 - Predict Space Weather
ACE projectNOAA - Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) collects data from a satellite that is located at the L1 Lagrange point, which is a point in space where the gravitational forces of the Earth and the Sun balance each other.
The data collected by ACE includes measurements of solar wind, Earth Magnetic field, and energetic particles that are crucial for predicting space weather events like geomagnetic storms and solar flares. ACE SWPC processes this data and produces alerts and forecasts for space weather events that could potentially impact satellites, power grids, communication systems, and other technological infrastructure on Earth.
The military, airlines, power companies, and telecommunications providers all use ACE SWPC data and predictions to make decisions and take precautions to protect their assets and operations from the effects of space weather.
The ionosphere enables HF radio waves to propagate over large distances. Solar radiation (EUV) forms the D, E, and F regions at heights from 60 to 700 kilometers above the Earth. The outermost F-region supports long-distance HF transmission (skywave). The inner D-region mostly absorbs the lower HF bands (160, 80, 60, and 40 m). Ionization during the day and dissipation at night affect all the HF bands, as well as the seasons and solar conditions, such as the 11-year sunspot cycle.
Review the essential points explained in the previous chapters:
HF radio is a form of electromagnetic radiation that travels as waves at the speed of light. HF radio waves can travel very long distances without the need for infrastructure like satellites or cables.
There are three main modes of HF radio propagation: line of sight (LOS), ground wave, and skywaves that involve wave reflections from the ionosphere.
NVIS is a unique communication mode used for local coverage in hilly and/or jungle areas, over short distances (a few hundred kilometers).
The greyline refers to the Earth's twilight zone between day and night, that is considered a "sweet spot" for HF radio communications.
Forecasting HF propagation conditions is the process of predicting how radio waves will travel through the upper atmosphere. It may help in selecting communication frequencies, planning antenna systems, and optimizing coverage.
Real-time Band Conditions can be assessed using various methods, such as: monitoring band activity through DX clusters, using personal receivers, accessing remote receivers via internet (WebSDR or KiwiSDR), monitoring CW beacons, and watching real-time charts or maps. It's recommended to use a combination of tools to get a complete picture of propagation conditions.
The amount of Solar emissions and the sun's position affect HF propagation conditions. Sunspot numbers and solar flux serve as indicators for assessing global propagation conditions.
Higher solar activity improves propagation conditions, while solar storms can disrupt communications.
During the day four ionospheric regions are active. The D-region vanishes at sunset and the higher regions E and F dissipate at night.
Diurnal changes in the day/night cycle are due to the Earth's rotation around its axis, which causes periodical changes in the free-electron density of all regions.
The F-region is the dominant "reflector" of Skywaves. Higher electron density of the F2-region enables bauncing of higher frequencies.
The effective range for communication is a function of the incident angle:
Seasonal and diurnal phenomena:
HF propagation conditions are better in the summer and closer to the equator. This is because direct solar radiation generates more free-electron in the summer and near the equator.
Local anomalies: The ionospheric regions are not homogeneous, rather composed of moving "plasma clouds".
Regional anomalies:
Winter anomaly - present in the northern hemisphere, but absent in the southern hemisphere
Lightning storms can cause ionospheric perturbations in the D-region
The critical frequency is an important characteristic that defines short wave propagation conditions. It correlates with Sunspot Number.
The graph below illustrates variations in the critical frequency as a function of years and seasons.
The critical frequency and Sunspot Number and Time, published by AGSWS
The left vertical axis denotes critical frequency - the highest frequency reflected at noon at near vertical angles from the F2, F1, and E leyers.
The information was derived from ionograms collected at noon in Canberra, Australia.
The highest F2 region has greater relative fluctuations in electron density than the lower F1 and E regions, because it is more influenced by the solar activity.
The right vertical axis shows sunspot sumber represented in the graph by the redish line.
The radio blockouts associated with solar flares occur during daytime and are most intense when the sun is directly overhead.
In a typical solar flare, X-Ray penetrate to the bottom of the ionosphere (to around 80 Km) and enhance the ionization of the D-region, which absorbs the lower HF bands.
Solar protons can also disrupt HF radio communication. These energetic protons are guided by Earth magnetic field, such that they collide with the upper atmosphere near the north and south poles. The fast-moving protons have an effect similar to the X-ray flares and create an enhanced D-region thus blocking HF radio communication near polar caps.
During auroral displays, the precipitating electrons can enhance other layers of the ionosphere and have similar disrupting and blocking effects on radio communication. This occurs mainly on the night side of the polar regions of Earth where the aurora is most intense and most frequent.
Forecasting HF propagation conditions requires mathematical models utilizing solar solar indices (SSN, SF), geomagnetic indices (K and A), frequency of operation, time of day, and season.
DXMAPs website shows on maps and lists the most recent contacts and reception reports in the different amateur radio and SWL bands. It’s aim is to provide a detailed view of the propagation conditions in real-time in various bands and modes.
Map for amateur radio uses (HamRadio) : In the shape of a terrestrial world globe, the MUF and Aurora Borealis layer. This gives the distances and directions of antennas between amateur radio stations, the position on the Maidenhead Locator grid.
Propagation of radio waves explainedPA9X Radio waves; Earth’s atmosphere (from Troposphere to Ionosphere); Main Propagation modes; Ionospheric layers; Solar Activity; Sunspots and Solar Flux; Solar Wind; Earth’s Geomagnetic Field; Solar Flares; Coronal Holes; CME; The 27-day cycle; The sunspot cycle; The Earth’s seasons; How HF propagation is affected by solar activity: Flares, Coronal holes, CME; Unique propagation effects: Sporadic-E, Backscatter, Aurora, Meteor scatter, Trans-Equatorial, Field Aligned Irregularities.
Software-Defined Radio Ionospheric Chirpsounder For Hf Propagation Analysis (2010) Nagaraju, Melodia (NY State Univ); Koski (Harris Corporation) A prototype description of Software Defined Radio (SDR) chirpsounder system, based on a commercially-available SDR platform, that dynamically select the best channels to be used in an HF link, to maximize communications capacity and reliability.
IRI is an international project that formed a Working Group in the late 1960s to produce an empirical standard model of the ionosphere, based on all available data sources. They provide monthly averages of the electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, and ion composition in the ionospheric altitude range.
IRI is sponsored by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI):
EVE OverviewSolar Phys. - The Solar Dynamics Observatory
The EVE project (real-time high-resolution EUV measurements) was designed to improve understanding of the evolution of solar flares and extend the related mathematical models used to analyze solar flare events. The article is an Overview of Science Objectives, Instrument Design, Data Products, and Model Developments. Published in Solar Phys. - DOI 10.1007/s11207-009-9487-6
Dr. Tamitha Skov is a space weather physicist that reviews solar storms and anlyzes how they affect spacewetaher. She specializes in forecasting and analyzing space weather processes in the heliosphere and exosphere. Her work extends to both traditional media and social platforms. As a credentialed space weather forecaster, she helps the public understand the effects of space weather.
HF Propagation ToolsHamwaves - Serge Stroobandt, ON4AA Real-time online dashboard of solar activity influencing HF propagation on Earth.
Real‑time HF propagation space weatherHamwaves - Serge Stroobandt, ON4AA Real-time online dashboard of solar activity influencing HF propagation on Earth.
App-Category: Prediction Software (Calculators using various models)
An Open-Source IRI-based Nowcasting Tool for Ionospheric Electron Density and HF Propagation Andrew D Rodland (2022 Harvard Abstracts)
An overview of the software and the models behind prop.kc2g.com, a website using the IRI-2016 model, conditioned on near-real-time ionosonde data, to provide global maps of MUF(3000) and foF2. While primarily designed for radio amateur use, this system is useful for nowcasting of F region ionospheric density and mesoscale low elevation HF propagation characteristics.
The Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System (ASAPS)AGSWS Australian Space Weather Forecasting Center offer three software products to predict HF propagation:
1. GWPS - designed for HF operators working in defence and emergency services
2. ASAPS Kernel - The Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System
designed for government, defence and emergency services
3. Consultancies - designed for industry, defence and emergency services
DR2W - Predict Propagation ConditionsDK9IP (Winfried), DH3WO (Wolfgang), DJ2BQ (Ewald), ZS1AO/DJ2HD (Mathew)
A Long-term forecasting cannot take into account unpredicted ionospheric and magnetic disturbances or anomalies
VOACAP Online Application for Ham RadioJari Perkiömäki, OH6BG / OG6G
VOACAP forecats monthly average of the expected reliability with diurnal and seasonal variations.
A Long-term forecasting cannot take into account unpredicted ionospheric and magnetic disturbances or anomalies.
IOCAP Application Introduction VideoSANSA The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) created i/o cap Primary Work Surface, an operational HF communication solution. It's a modern, user-friendly HF frequency prediction tool that's simple to use and accurate. In a software program, it blends space weather research and practical HF experience.
DX Toolbox - Shortwave / Ham Radio / HF Radio PropagationBlack Cat Systems This is a software application that provides a range of tools for HF radio operators, including propagation forecast based on the Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (STL) model.
It also includes a real-time solar data display and a grayline map.
Proplab-Pro v3: RevieweHamManualspacew.com
Proplab-Pro 3.2 (Build 45, March 2023) Three-dimensional ray-tracing ionosphere; can run as standalone; not free.
W6ELProp (2002) Sheldon C. Shallon, W6EL Rated: 7.56 by DxZone Predicts skywave propagation between any two locations on the earth on frequencies between 3 and 30 MHz
HamCAP (VOACAP interface) by Alex Shovkoplyas, VE3NEA. Rated 8.93 by DxZone
App-Category: Overviews and Reviews of prediction software
What can we expect from a HF propagation model?Luxorion
Dynamic processes relevant to HF radio propagation are simulated using mathematical models, and numerical procedures.
Interactions between the Sun's surface and the Earth's surface are considered using sun, space weather, ionosphere,
and atmosphere models, all of which can aid in the prediction of HF radio propagation.
Review of HF Propagation analysis & prediction programs Research Oriented Luxorion Some of these propagation programs are only accessible via the Internet via a web interface and provide graphical solutions.
Amateurs have also created small applications that simulate various ionospheric effects.
Using either near-real-time data or well-known functions, the majority of them achieve extremely high accuracy.
Review of Propagation prediction programs - VOACAP-basedLuxorion The VOACAP propagation prediction engine is the result of decades of US government-funded HF propagation research
stretching back to the dawn of computing. While VOACAP's forecasting capability has been continuously improved
as knowledge about HF propagation has increased, its software technology is firmly rooted in the 1980s.
Predicting and Monitoring PropagationDXLab * Solar terminator display and prediction - shows greyline at any specified date and time
* Propagation prediction - provides a graphical view of openings by frequency and time using your choice of the included VOACAP, ICEPAC, and IONCAP forecasting engines.
PropViewDXLab Rated 8.27 by The DXZone
PropView uses the included VOACAP, ICEPAC, and IONCAP propagation prediction engines to forecast
the LUF and MUF between two locations over a specified 24 hour period. Results are rendered in an easy-to-understand color-graphic display.
You can specify locations via direct latitude/longitude entry.
Alternatively, PropView interoperates with DXView to allow location selection via DXCC prefix entry or by clicking on locations on a world map. It can:
(1) build schedules for the IARU/HF beacon network and automatically QSY your transceiver to monitor each scheduled beacon.
(2) monitor the NCDXF/IARU International Beacon Network to assess actual propagation and compare it with forecast propagation.
Beacon schedules can be assembled by band, by location, or by bearing from your QTH.
PropView interoperates with Commander and DXView to automatically QSY your transceiver
to hear each beacon in your schedule, and to display the location of the current beacon.
App-Category: Mathematical models / Numerical procedures based on solar activity, space wather, Earth Magnetic field, ionospheric models, ray-tracying taking into account the time of day:
ITU-R P.533 model This is an ITU table links to Software, Data and Validation examples for ionospheric and tropospheric radio wave propagation and radio noise in a wide range of propagation conditions. The ITUR HF Prop experimental software, was written by G4FKH and HZ1JB, and is based on the ITU-R P.533 method.
It uses a probabilistic approach to estimate radio coverage with algorithms that are supposed to be more accurate than other similar programs.
App-Category: Ray-tracing models based on frequency, angle of incidence, and electron density profiles of the ionosphere.
IONCAP - Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Prediction
HF transmission prediction program for US military and other applications since 1986.
It was based on Automatic Link Establishment (ALE) Frequency Selection for a Ten-Node Australian High-Frequency Network.
This program was clumsy, slow, and complicated, as it only allowed users with a sufficient background in ionospheric physics
and computer data entry experience to use it. A new version was developed to fix these flaws while also improving capability
to the point where it could be used by a layperson.
ITUR HF Prop
Prediction of HF circuits based on Recommendation ITU-R P.533 model - an improved (2017) point-to-point propagation prediction tool, based on an ITU engine, developed by Gwyn Williams, G4FKH.
VOACAP (Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program) VOACAP forecats monthly average of the expected reliability with diurnal and seasonal variations,
but it does not account for unpredicted ionospheric and magnetic disturbances or anomalies,
i.e. what are the expected variations of A-index, K-index, and energy densities of solar proton / electron flux, etc.
App-Category: Neural network models:
These models use machine learning techniques to predict the behavior of radio waves based on input data.
They may take into account factors such as solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and the time of day.
The HF Ionospheric Prediction and Solar Terrestrial Data Center uses machine learning algorithms to predict ionospheric conditions.
Misc. ReferencesDefinitions, cross-disciplinary research etc.
Our hobby
Amateur RadioWikipedia
The name of the hobby "Amateur radio" refers to a non-commercial communication, wireless experimentation, self-training, private recreation,
radiosport, contesting, and emergency communications activity that may use radio transmitters and receivers.
Amateur radio stationWikipedia Read about different types of stations used by amateur radio operators.
Radio AmateurWikipedia "Radio Amateur" is the person usualy a licensed operator who communicates with other radio amateurs on amateur radio frequencies.
Shortwave listening (SWL) Wikipedia Shortwave listening, or SWLing, is the hobby of listening to shortwave radio. See for example OfficialSWLchannel a dedicated youtube channel for shortwave listeners.
Automatic link establishment (ALE)Wikipedia ALE is a (military or commercial) feature in an HF communications radio transceiver system that enables the radio station to make contact, or initiate a circuit, between itself and another HF radio station or network of stations. The purpose is to provide a reliable rapid method of calling and connecting during constantly changing HF ionospheric propagation, reception interference, and shared spectrum use of busy or congested HF channels.
Deterministic ChaosThe Exploratorium, 1996 Deterministic chaos refers in the world of dynamics to the generation of random, unpredictable behavior from a simple, but nonlinear rule. The rule has no "noise", randomness, or probabilities built in. Instead, through the rule's repeated application the long-term behavior becomes quite complicated. In this sense, the unpredictability "emerges" over time.
Deterministic ChaosPrincipia Cybernetica 2000 A system is chaotic if its trajectory through state space is sensitively dependent on the initial conditions, that is, if unobservably small causes can produce large effects.
Concepts: ChaosNew England Complex Systems Institute A chaotic system is a deterministic system that is difficult to predict. A deterministic system is defined as one whose state at one time completely determines its state for all future times.
Short and long term prediction of ionospheric HF radio propagationJ. Mielich und J. Bremer (2010) A modified ionospheric activity index AI has been developed on the basis of ionospheric foF2 observations.
Such index can be helpful for an interested user to get information about the current state of the ionosphere. Using ionosonde data.
Long-Term Changes in Ionospheric Climate in Terms of foF2Jan Lastovicka (2022) There is not only space weather; there is also space climate. Space climate includes the ionospheric climate, which is affected by long-term trends in the ionosphere.
A simplified HF radio channel forecasting modelAdvances in Space Research, Volume 69, Issue 6, 15 March 2022, Pages 2477-2488, Moskaleva, Zaalov
Estimating the maximum electron density in the ionosphere in relation to the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2). The suggested forecasting model estimates the electron density profile one day ahead. Comparisons of observed and predicted vertical ionograms indicate the technique's utility.
Ionospheric currentUpper Atmospheric Science Division
of the British Antarctic Survey
Comparison of observed and predicted MUF(3000)F2 in the polar cap regionRadio Science AGU (2015) Comparison of ICEPAC, VOACAP, and REC533 models reveal diurnal and seasonal variations. Summer diurnal variation is not represented by the VOACAP or ICEPAC models. REC533 surpasses VOACAP during the winter and equinox months. ICEPAC performs poorly during periods of low solar activity.
We did, however, gain new narrow bands in the short, medium, and long wave bands. It may not be enough, but it opens up new avenues for communication improvement that do not rely on commercial infrastructure.
If you have comments, questions or requests please e-mail.
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