Forecasting and Predicting
Ham Radio Operation Planning Tools

This page is part of the project "Understanding HF Propagation."
by Doron Tal, 4X4XM

Find on this page several applications and tools available to help radio amateurs plan their radio operations effectively.

The terms "forecasting" and "prediction" differ primarily in their time frames and methodologies.

• Forecasting: Short-term estimations based on real-time data (e.g., "Conditions will improve in the next hour").
• Prediction: Long-term projections using historical trends (e.g., "Better 40-meter conditions expected next month").

These applications and tools are based on observations of wave conditions and the physical parameters that affect them. Therefore, it is appropriate to first introduce the applications that monitor HF band conditions.

Monitoring Tools

1. PSKReporter: A tool that allows radio amateurs to track and report propagation conditions, providing a global map of signal paths.
 
2. WSPRnet—Weak Signal Propagation Reporter: A tool for reporting and tracking propagation conditions globally, useful for identifying propagation paths and monitoring changes.
 
3. Real-time data that can be used to assess the current propagation conditions:
 

Recent Regional Propagation Charts Current Ham Activity (160-6m) Recent HF Bands Conditions Point-to-Point 24-hour forecast

Recent Global Condition Charts Global conditions on the 17-10m bands in the last 48 hours Recent R-S-G reports Recent solar flares | Space weather reports

Forecasting Tools

Radio propagation forecasts help radio operators optimize communication by determining the best frequencies and times to make contact with specific destinations. For example, Andrew D. Rodland, KC2G, offers a free application called "HF Propagation Planner." This is an HF propagation planning and forecasting tool, similar to Proppy's Radcom Predictions. While prediction tools rely on "global monthly average" ionospheric conditions, this planner makes a regional short-term forecast using real-time data. ↗

See a practicle example with explanations.

Prediction Tools

1. VOACAP (Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program): A free and popular program that predicts long-term radio propagation conditions between two locations for a specific time of day and frequency, providing information on the best times and frequencies for long-distance communication.
 
2. HFTA (High Frequency Terrain Analysis): A software tool that models antenna performance based on terrain and other factors, helping to predict signal clarity and coverage area.
 
3. DX Toolbox A software tool offering features like propagation predictions, grayline mapping, and solar weather tracking.

See detailed information about forecasting propagation tools for radio amateurs.