↑ HF Propagation Forecast

This page is part of the project "Understanding HF Propagation."
by Doron Tal, 4X4XM

HF Propagation Forecast Overview

  • Ham radio (HF) communication relies on skywave propagation.
  • Skywave band conditions shift constantly by the minute and across longer timeframes.
  • Factors like time of day, solar activity, and ionospheric conditions drive these changes.
  • Propagation charts visually aid in signal strength estimation and long-distance communication potential by highlighting factors like MUF, solar flux, geography, and geomagnetic activity.
  • By interpreting propagation charts, users can forecast how and when certain communication paths might open or close.

Propagation Forecast Charts based on recent conditions

Regional Propagation Maps
based on ham activity and ionosondes
Pros: Show geographical distribution
Cons: Implicit info about disruptions!
 
Recent Ham Activity (last 15 minutes)
DXview

real-time reports on 11 bands (160-6 m).


Recent MUF Conditions (last 15 minutes)
Recent MUF 3000km

Iso-frequency contours of 8 ham bands
based on data from ionosondes.


The predicted Regional LUF Conditions
Globak LUF map

Global map of the recent LUF shows the
predicted attenuation from 3 to 35 MHz
due to solar and spaceweather events.


Global Conditions Charts
based on solar-terrestrial data.
Pros: Comm. disruptions at a glance
Cons: No geographical distribution!
 
Today's Propagation indices
by Paul L Herrman, N0NBH HamQSL


Recent R-S-G reports

Solar flares | More Space weather reports


Forecasting vs. Prediction

The terms forecasting and prediction differ primarily in their time frames and methodologies.

  • Forecasting: Short-term estimations based on current data (e.g., "Conditions will improve in the next hour").
  • Prediction: Long-term estimates based on trends (e.g., "Better 40-meter conditions expected next month").


Evolution of forecasting techniques

Remarkable advancements in space technology , software-defined radio (SDR) , and the internet have revolutionized our understanding of radio wave propagation. Before the 1990s, propagation charts and reports were often published in amateur radio magazines. Today, real-time solar indices and computer programs provide accurate, up-to-the-minute propagation data using online tools .


The project "Understanding HF Propagation" focuses on near-real-time indicators and explains what they mean.

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