National Situation Update: Saturday, January 8, 2005

Weather Outlook

West

Waves moving onshore from low-pressure system in the Pacific continue to bring rain and snow to much of the west coast through Monday. Winter storm warnings are in effect from California to Colorado and Idaho. Additional accumulations of snow will be measured in feet. Even Las Vegas will see snow flurries. Flooding rainfall will also be a major concern in California. Rainfall totals from three to six inches should be common in Southern California, with higher totals along the foothills of the mountains likely. The potential exists for mudslides see related report on Debris Flow Advisory below. Winds gusting over 60 mph at times will buffet the Sierra Crest, San Gabriels, and strong wind gusts will persist over parts of the California�s Central Valley and San Francisco Bay Area through the evening. (National Weather Service)

Severe Weather - California

Severe weather statewide has caused significant issues. In Northern California, there are blizzard conditions from Redding north to the Oregon Border. Snow is falling at record rates in the Mojave Desert and Inyo County. Snow levels are dropping throughout the Sierras and heavy weather is expected in the burn areas of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties.

High winds and wave action, in conjunction with high coastal tides, are a threat to the Delta Levee system, low-lying intersections, and drainage systems.

In Santa Barbara County, Highway 101 is being monitored for landslide activity in the Gaviota area and Interstate 5 is closed at the Grapevine. In a related note, avalanche warnings have been posted for the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

The State of California Emergency Operations Center (EOC) was activated last evening and will operate 24/7 until at least Sunday evening and the EOCs in San Bernardino, Los Angeles and Monterrey Counties are active 24/7.

Swift Water Rescue teams are preparing for active operations and Local Emergency Response elements are active and mitigating the effects of local events as they occur.

All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level. FEMA Region IX has detailed two Liaison Officers to the State EOC for the event duration. Although research into available Military Search and Rescue assets is underway, no request for Federal assistance has been received. (Various Media Sources)

Debris-Flow Advisory for Southern California

The US Geological Survey today, Friday, January 7, 2005, advised Federal, State, and local agencies about the continuing possibility of landslides and debris flows in seven counties (San Diego, Riverside, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara) of southern California due to recent rains, melting snow, and anticipated rain forecasted by the National Weather Service.

The US Geological Survey is issuing the following advisory for southern California because of heavy rainfall for the past two weeks and rainfall forecasted for the weekend in southern California:

Significant debris-flow (mudflow) activity is likely in areas of the counties that are susceptible to debris flow and receive intense rain on already wet slopes.

Areas that have been burned in recent wildfires may be even more vulnerable, so that significantly lesser rainfall amounts over shorter time periods could produce hazardous debris flows in San Diego, Riverside, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara.

Areas of potential danger from debris flow include areas downslope and downstream from the susceptible areas. Fatalities, injuries, and property damage from debris flows commonly occur in low-lying areas such as canyon floors and near the mouths of canyons.

Obstructed drainage may increase the potential for landslides. (US Geological Survey)

Navajo President Declares State Of Emergency Because Of Weather Damage

Navajo Nation President Joe Shirley Jr. and the Navajo Department of Emergency Management declared a state of emergency Friday, January 7, 2005 for parts of the vast reservation devastated by rain, snow and flooding.

Authorities closed some roads made impassable by the stormy weather, stranding residents and motorists, and some locations experienced shortages of medical supplies, food and livestock feed.

About 17 families in the Bird Springs area were the most affected according to the Navajo Department of Public Safety in Dilkon. Several of the families live without electricity or phone service and reported shortages of food, wood, and water.

More storms were forecast for the area during the weekend. There have been no requests for Federal Assistance. (Various Media Sources)

National Situation Update: Friday, January 7, 2005

Weather Outlook

West

Two Pacific low pressure systems, one off the Oregon /Washington coast and the other off the central California coast will keep the entire West Coast wet today. Seattle will experience a mix of rain and snow. Rain of two inches or more will fall along the coast between San Francisco and Los Angeles with higher amounts in the coastal mountains. Snow levels will range from 3000 feet in the north to 5000 feet in the southern Sierra with several feet of new snow forecast. Winds could gust as high as 60 to 70 mph in the mountains and up to 50 mph around San Francisco and across the Central Valley. On Saturday, Southern California could see four inches of rain along the coast and valleys with higher amounts into the mountains (see following article on Flash Flooding).

Flash Flood Watch for Southern California

The National Weather Service has released a flood watch for flash flooding for many areas in Southern California from Friday until Tuesday afternoon below 7000 feet. A moist westerly flow will bring periods of rain, heavy at times, Friday into Tuesday. The heavy rain on already saturated ground will increase the flash flood potential.

Affected areas include: Orange County coastal areas; San Diego County coastal areas; San Bernardino and Riverside County valleys; the Inland Empire; San Diego County valleys; San Bernardino County mountains; Riverside County mountains; Santa Ana mountains and foothills; and San Diego County mountains; Coachella valley and San Diego County deserts.

Periods of rain over coastal areas will become steady farther inland on the coastal slopes. Total rain amounts each day could be in excess of one inch in the coastal and valley areas with two to four inches on the coastal mountain slopes below the snow level.

Much less will fall in the deserts with up to an inch possible. Larger amounts are likely on southwest facing mountain slopes. This could produce rainfall totals for Friday through Tuesday of close to three to six inches in many coastal and valley areas with 12 to 24 inches on the coastal mountain slopes.

The heavy rain could cause flash flooding along with rock and mud slides, especially in steep terrain, or in and below recently burned areas. Rivers, creeks, and streams could quickly reach near their banks or overflow.

The rains of the last few weeks have filled the aquifers underlying the San Diego and San Luis Rey rivers. This will result in a quicker response and greater flows in the channels if heavy rainfall should develop. As a result, river flood warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service.

The snow level will start out around 5000 feet, but will increase to 7000 feet in the warm southwesterly flow. As a result, any heavy snow that falls below 7000 feet may become melt water as the freezing level rises and steady rains melt the snow. This will only add to the flooding potential on creeks and streams draining these areas both to the west and to the east. This will create a flash flood potential on the desert side of the mountains even though no heavy rain accumulations are expected there. Several feet of snow are likely to accumulate above 7000 feet by Tuesday with little melting.

A flood watch means that flash flooding will be possible but is not imminent.

Due to recent heavy rainfall in southern California and the triggering of several debris flows in the mountain ranges west of Los Angeles, the US Geological Survey (USGS) is issuing a landslide advisory for southern California effective Thursday, January 6, 2005.

With the previous rainfall from the recent storms, the slopes in the southern California area are now closer to the conditions conducive to the inception of landslides. With renewed rainfall from the coming storms, the subsurface moisture conditions will become closer to saturation and may trigger additional debris flows and other types of landslides. (National Weather Service, USGS, and Various Media Sources)

Severe Storms and Flooding in Arizona

The Arizona Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) will reactivate the State EOC as of 11:00 a.m. EST Friday, January 7, 2005.

Latest weather forecasts predict a significant amount of warm rain will occur over the weekend in Northern Arizona and since there is a large amount of snow on the ground from the previous storms this week, the DEM is concerned that snowmelt will cause substantial runoff and consequent flash flooding. As a result, the Arizona Governor�s office has declared a state of emergency for Coconino County and Yavapai Counties.

At this time no request for Federal Assistance is anticipated. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level. Region IX has dispatched two liaison officers to assist the State at the State EOC over the weekend should the need arise. The State of Arizona Department of Emergency Management has contacted the Small Business Administration (SBA) and may request an SBA declaration.

State and local flood-control experts are watching the Phoenix metropolitan area's system of protective dams and diversion ditches closely with two more storms predicted for this weekend.

The National Weather Service in Phoenix predicts a mild storm Friday afternoon through Saturday. But a warming trend in the high country and heavy rains expected to begin Sunday night could mean a major snowmelt and more rain in saturated desert areas and runoff could become a serious problem, although officials are not too concerned about major flooding from coming storms because there will be a few days in between to dry out.

The Flood Control District for decades has worked with municipalities, developers and state and federal agencies to build flood-control projects that safeguard growing population with more than 80 major dams, ditches and drains. The county also owns and maintains 22 mostly earthen-dam structures. Although many of them are aging, the dams have performed well. County officials are seeking federal assistance to repair or rebuild 13 cracked or settling dams. (FEMA Region IX and Various Media Sources)

National Situation Update: Thursday, January 6, 2005

Winter Damage Control

Arizona

Snow, rain, and hail left sections of the state with flooding, power outages, and rockslides. In northern Arizona, residents were dealing with heavy snow and power outages. Four counties have emergency declarations. Creeks and rivers in several parts of the state were expected to remain high, with another storm predicted to hit Arizona Friday.

California

Heavily traveled Interstate 5 in the Tejon Pass through the Tehachapi Mountains north of Los Angeles was reopened, more than a day after the north-south route was closed by snow and ice in the winding Grapevine section. The storm pounded California Tuesday, flooding freeways and desert roads, tossing boats ashore and triggering a rockslide that blocked Highway 1 on the central coast. Three deaths were linked to the storm. Power outages affected more than 100,000 customers in Southern California. Rain from the storm totaled between 12 and 13 inches in areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

FEMA Regional staffs are in contact with State Emergency Operations Centers in the affected states. At this time, no Federal assistance is requested. (FEMA HQ, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, Media sources)

National Situation Update: Wednesday, January 5, 2005

FEMA Regional Activities

Arizona

Strong Pacific storms continue to bring widespread heavy rain to Arizona. Flash flood warnings have issued throughout the state.

The following summarizes the situation as of January 4, 2005: Gila County: The County EOC was activated this morning and a County Declaration of Emergency was issued at 1100 hrs (Local) High waters persist in Tonto Creek including the communities of Pumpkin Center, and the Tonto Basin. An Army National Guard helicopter has been activated and is standing by in Pumpkin Center should the need arise.

Coconino County PDA remains steady at $120,000. State Declaration of Emergency issued. Yavapai County PDA estimated at $2,111,313 State Declaration of Emergency issued. Navajo County: A team is working to repair a breech in the Winslow levee that may fail if a significant amount of rain falls. Five-hundred people could be affected. Evacuation plans are in place should the need arise. The Red Cross was notified. If Navajo County declares a county emergency, the State Declaration will be amended to include Navajo County.

Greenlee County: EOC was activated this morning. This EOC will close this evening. No other counties are reporting issues. The Arizona State EOC remains activated. The Arizona Governor�s office has declared a state of emergency for Coconino and Yavapai Counties.

All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level. The State of Arizona Department of Emergency Management has contacted the SBA and may request an SBA declaration. At this time, no request for DHS/FEMA assistance is anticipated. (FEMA Region IX)

National Situation Update: Tuesday, January 4, 2005

Weather Outlook

West:

Snow and snow showers will be widespread over the Interior West Tuesday, extending from the Great Basin to the Rocky Mountains. The heaviest snowfall will coat the higher elevations, but significant amounts are also likely along the east slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains of Wyoming and Colorado. Up to 9 or 10 inches of snow are possible on the plains; Denver is expected to see 2 to 4 inches. Farther west, the rain in Southern California will be lighter and more scattered Tuesday, but it won�t be completely over. Meanwhile, the heaviest downpours are expected to drench the lower elevations of Arizona.

FEMA Regional Activities

Arizona

Residents and response agencies in central Arizona have begun damage assessments in Coconino and Yavapai Counties for damages sustained during the severe storms and flooding last week. Preliminary counts indicate as many as 150 homes may have sustained damages up to approximately one million dollars.

The Arizona State EOC remains activated. The Arizona Governor�s office has declared a state of emergency for Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Both counties have declared local emergencies.

Another storm system is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level. The State of Arizona Department of Emergency Management has contacted the Small Business Administration (SBA), and may request an SBA declaration. At this time no request for DHS/FEMA assistance is anticipated. (FEMA Region IX, Arizona Department of Emergency Management, Media Sources)