This info forwarded to me from The Salvation Army's Emergency Disaster Services ........dk
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New Early Forecast For 2011
Hurricane Season
At the end of each year, world re-known hurricane forecaster Dr. William M. Gray and his colleague, Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach at Colorado State University, publish a summary of the previous year's Hurricane Season (2010) and a first long-range forecast for the upcoming Hurricane Season (2011). Key points of their lengthy and scholarly works are summarized below in a chart of activity for 2010 and forecast for the same data for 2011. There is also a map from Weather Underground showing all of the storm tracks for the 2011 Hurricane Season and a very brief analysis of all of that data.
The chart below will give you the following information:
Column 1 & 2: The Early Forecast (Column 1) and the Actual Activity (Column 2) for the 2010
Hurricane Season
Column 3: The Early Forecast for the 2011 Hurricane Season
Column 4: The average numbers for the 50 years between 1950 and 2000.
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2010 Season 2011 Season 50 Year
Forecast / Actual Forecast Average
Number of Named Storms 15 19 17 9.6
Number of Hurricanes 8 12 9 5.9
Number of Major Hurricanes * 4 5 5 2.3
% Chance of U.S. Landfall 69% N/A 73% 52%
% Chance of U.S. East Coast 45% N/A 49% 31%
% Chance of Gulf Coast 44% N/A 48% 30%
There is also an above average risk(62%) of of landfall by a Major Hurricane * in the Caribbean
in 2011
* Major Hurricanes are defined as hurricanes which reach Category 3, 4 or 5.
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Figure Courtesy of Weather Underground (http://www.weatherunderground.com)
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What follows below is my own analysis and does NOT come from Dr. Gray, his colleagues or Colorado State University.
1. 2010 was a very busy year for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin. The United States was very fortunate in that very few of the storms made a U.S. mainland landfall A number of islands and Central American countries were not quite as fortunate. However, a look at the map above shows that the majority of the major hurricanes stayed out to sea.
2. If the predictions are correct, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be almost as busy.
3. Of particular note are the probability figures for landfall on the U.S. mainland and in the Caribbean. All of those indices are each 4 percentage points higher than in 2010.
4. The forecasters still believe that the United States is in the midst of a cycle of increased
hurricane activity. It is their belief that hurricane activity in 2011 will be somewhat higher
than the average for the latter half of the 20th Century (1950 - 2000).
For those who are interested in the really technical data that is offered by the full reports, you can see them at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/ .
At the end of each year, world re-known hurricane forecaster Dr. William M. Gray and his colleague, Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach at Colorado State University, publish a summary of the previous year's Hurricane Season (2010) and a first long-range forecast for the upcoming Hurricane Season (2011). Key points of their lengthy and scholarly works are summarized below in a chart of activity for 2010 and forecast for the same data for 2011. There is also a map from Weather Underground showing all of the storm tracks for the 2011 Hurricane Season and a very brief analysis of all of that data.
The chart below will give you the following information:
Column 1 & 2: The Early Forecast (Column 1) and the Actual Activity (Column 2) for the 2010
Hurricane Season
Column 3: The Early Forecast for the 2011 Hurricane Season
Column 4: The average numbers for the 50 years between 1950 and 2000.
=================================================================================
2010 Season 2011 Season 50 Year
Forecast / Actual Forecast Average
Number of Named Storms 15 19 17 9.6
Number of Hurricanes 8 12 9 5.9
Number of Major Hurricanes * 4 5 5 2.3
% Chance of U.S. Landfall 69% N/A 73% 52%
% Chance of U.S. East Coast 45% N/A 49% 31%
% Chance of Gulf Coast 44% N/A 48% 30%
There is also an above average risk(62%) of of landfall by a Major Hurricane * in the Caribbean
in 2011
* Major Hurricanes are defined as hurricanes which reach Category 3, 4 or 5.
What follows below is my own analysis and does NOT come from Dr. Gray, his colleagues or Colorado State University.
1. 2010 was a very busy year for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin. The United States was very fortunate in that very few of the storms made a U.S. mainland landfall A number of islands and Central American countries were not quite as fortunate. However, a look at the map above shows that the majority of the major hurricanes stayed out to sea.
2. If the predictions are correct, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be almost as busy.
3. Of particular note are the probability figures for landfall on the U.S. mainland and in the Caribbean. All of those indices are each 4 percentage points higher than in 2010.
4. The forecasters still believe that the United States is in the midst of a cycle of increased
hurricane activity. It is their belief that hurricane activity in 2011 will be somewhat higher
than the average for the latter half of the 20th Century (1950 - 2000).
For those who are interested in the really technical data that is offered by the full reports, you can see them at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/ .