FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
17 OCTOBER - 12 NOVEMBER 2001

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY DURING 15 - 30 OCTOBER WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 9628 (S18, L = 292, CLASS/AREA FKC/880 ON 24 SEPTEMBER) AND 9632 (S19, L = 272, CLASS/AREA DKI/790 ON 24 SEPTEMBER). BOTH REGIONS HAD A HISTORY OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE PRODUCTION.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT DURING 15 - 30 OCTOBER WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 9628 AND 9632.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, HIGH FLUX LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 28 OCTOBER.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING 26 - 27 OCTOBER DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.