The following data is a dynamic collection from various webpages. These maps and charts are helpful to predict low-band conditions as a function of northern magnetic disturbance.  Relying on the basic Boulder (WWV) K and A index is often misleading.  The data here more accurately reflects the geomagnetic conditions along the great circle northern paths from VE6 to EU. Many complex and subtle phenomena effect low-band DX propagation.  However, from northerly locations like VE6, band openings on 80 and 160m seem to be mostly dependant on geo-magnetic activity levels. This page will automatically refresh and update with the latest numbers. (Photo at right: A satellite view of Canada showing the aurora "ring of fire"...what a shot !!)

MORE INFO FROM SPACE WEATHER CANADA

Go to NRCan Space WX page

MAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES LOCATIONS

Regional Geomagnetic Conditions
Real-Time Reports and Forecasts

 

Graph - Multi-Station Review and Forecast

Graph-3 Zone Review and Forecast

 

6 Hour - Three Zone Forecast

12 Hour - Three Zone Forecast

27 DAY MAGNETIC FORECAST

DRX for the zone is the mean of 24, 1 hour values. Because this averaging process has the effect of smoothing (filtering) the more rapid fluctuations in the field, the qualitative descriptors are defined rather differently than for the short-term forecasts. Units are nanoteslas (nT). This could be roughly equivalent to a one-day "A-index"

CURRENT AURORAL OVAL ACTIVITY

Explanation - Real Time Status Reports and Forecasts of Regional Geomagnetic Conditions

Real Time Status Reports

The Reports for the several geographic regions are derived from actual measurements made at magnetic observatories situated in each of the regions. In each case, data are telemetered from the observatory to headquarters in Ottawa, where the data are processed to produce a Kr index to characterize the level of magnetic disturbance measured during the past hour.

For the Eastern North America region, the status report is updated every minute, whereas reports for the other regions are updated every five minutes, because of less frequent data telemetry.

For qualitative comparison, the words describing the activity levels used in other forecast formats in this web site are included. Colours in the display panels change according to the level of the magnetic activity and Kr index, ranging from green, through yellow, amber, orange, to red.

Regional Forecasts

The Forecasts are provided as summaries of the expected activity during the next 3 hours and during the following 3 hours, for each of the regions. Again, for ease of comparison with other sources of information, they are presented in terms of the Kr index. The forecasts are updated every fifteen minutes. The words describing the activity levels and the panel colour scheme used for the Status Reports also apply to the Forecast panels. When appropriate, Major Storm Watches are issued, indicating that conditions are such that Major Storm activity could occur during the time interval. When a watch is in effect, the upper part of the appropriate panel is coloured purple, and a Storm Watch message appears below the Forecast panels.

Kr Index

The Kr index is approximately equivalent to the local K index, but whereas the true K index is not routinely available until the day after data are measured (and then only for three observatories), the Kr index is available almost immediately. The two indices can differ slightly at low levels of activity but are not significantly different at high levels of activity. There are nine levels in the Kr index, as in the K index. Whereas the K index is defined over an interval of 3 hours, the Kr index is defined over an interval of 1 hour. It is derived from the running hourly range computed from the incoming observatory data, and is equivalenced to the K scale.

DRX (24hr Kr mean) "A-index"

The levels of geomagnetic field activity, or disturbance, currently used in the long-term (up to 27 days) forecasts are labelled qualitatively for general usage. For each of the three major zones (subauroral, auroral, polar cap), the range of activity is divided into four classifications: quiet, unsettled, active, storm. The actual parameter used for reporting and forecasting magnetic activity is a daily index. It is known as DRX and is the average of the hourly ranges (maximum minus minimum during each hour) in the X (northward) component of the magnetic field intensity for a day (the UT [or GMT] day), ie DRX for the zone is the mean of 24 values. Because this averaging process has the effect of smoothing (filtering) the more rapid fluctuations in the field, the qualitative descriptors are defined rather differently than for the short-term forecasts. Units are nanoteslas (nT).

Below are soft X-ray solar images.  Bright spots indicate active regions or flares. Click the image to see real-time .gif movies of the sun. (from SOHO: http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/ )
SOHO-17.1mm SOHO-19.5mm  SOHO-28.4mm SOHO-30.4mm

Below is the latest solar image from SDO (solar dynamics observatory) at an AIA wavelength of 171 (Go here for more images and detail: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/)

Click the image for a larger view...amazing detail!

SWPC ACE RTSW MAG & SWEPAM 7-day Updating Plot click to see movie

ABOVE: Latest solar wind data

BELOW: Last 12 hours animated solar wind data

A-INDICES FROM BOULDER  CO.,  FREDERICKSBURG VA. AND COLLEGE AK.

The chart below is updated every 15 minutes at 1, 16, 31, and 46 minutes past the hour.  Boulder, Colorado and Fredericksburg, Virginia are mid-latitude stations. College, Alaska is a high-latitude station. Estimated Planetary is a combined measure of several mid- and high-latitude stations. (Source : http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ )

 

LONG RANGE LOW-BAND FORECAST ???

 

Below is an EXCEL chart showing how the A index changes relative to sunspot numbers from 1932 till present.  Created from raw data downloaded from: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/  and ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/GEOMAGNETIC_DATA/INDICES/ 

RED line- Smoothed Monthly Sunspot count, GREEN (fill)-Monthly Mean Ap number, Blue line- Ap moving average.

Notice how the geomagnetic activity seems to be lowest (low Ap) just at the beginning of the up-cycle of each sunspot cycle.  This would suggest that geomagnetic conditions are likely to be most quiet during years 2007-2010.

 

The EXCEL chart below was created by Jerry VE6TL and really shows how the current cycle 24 is 'way behind schedule" !! The black arrows are all 5 years long and it is clear that by now we should be 1/2 to 1/3 up the next cycle but we are only now just starting to come up.

Jerry built this chart from the NRC dataset

 

LIGHTNING DATA

Static (QRN) got you down....why can't he copy me?????  Maybe he has high QRN !!!

Here are some links to show lightning activity in different parts of the world:

World: http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_global_map.jpg

North America: http://www.lightningstorm.com

Europe: http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

CURRENT LIGHTNING AROUND THE WORLD

Lightning stroke positions are shown as coloured dots which "cool down" from blue for the most recent (occurring within the last 10 min) through green and yellow to red for the oldest (30-40 minutes earlier).

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