MAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES LOCATIONS
Graph-3 Zone Review and Forecast
6 Hour - Three Zone Forecast
|12 Hour - Three Zone Forecast
27 DAY MAGNETIC FORECAST
DRX for the zone is the mean of 24, 1 hour values. Because this averaging process has the effect of smoothing (filtering) the more rapid fluctuations in the field, the qualitative descriptors are defined rather differently than for the short-term forecasts. Units are nanoteslas (nT). This could be roughly equivalent to a one-day "A-index"
CURRENT AURORAL OVAL ACTIVITY
Real Time Status Reports
The Reports for the several geographic regions are derived from actual measurements made at magnetic observatories situated in each of the regions. In each case, data are telemetered from the observatory to headquarters in Ottawa, where the data are processed to produce a Kr index to characterize the level of magnetic disturbance measured during the past hour.
For the Eastern North America region, the status report is updated every minute, whereas reports for the other regions are updated every five minutes, because of less frequent data telemetry.
For qualitative comparison, the words describing the activity levels used in other forecast formats in this web site are included. Colours in the display panels change according to the level of the magnetic activity and Kr index, ranging from green, through yellow, amber, orange, to red.
The Forecasts are provided as summaries of the expected activity during the next 3 hours and during the following 3 hours, for each of the regions. Again, for ease of comparison with other sources of information, they are presented in terms of the Kr index. The forecasts are updated every fifteen minutes. The words describing the activity levels and the panel colour scheme used for the Status Reports also apply to the Forecast panels. When appropriate, Major Storm Watches are issued, indicating that conditions are such that Major Storm activity could occur during the time interval. When a watch is in effect, the upper part of the appropriate panel is coloured purple, and a Storm Watch message appears below the Forecast panels.
The Kr index is approximately equivalent to the local K index, but whereas the true K index is not routinely available until the day after data are measured (and then only for three observatories), the Kr index is available almost immediately. The two indices can differ slightly at low levels of activity but are not significantly different at high levels of activity. There are nine levels in the Kr index, as in the K index. Whereas the K index is defined over an interval of 3 hours, the Kr index is defined over an interval of 1 hour. It is derived from the running hourly range computed from the incoming observatory data, and is equivalenced to the K scale.
DRX (24hr Kr mean) "A-index"
The levels of geomagnetic field activity, or disturbance, currently used in the long-term (up to 27 days) forecasts are labelled qualitatively for general usage. For each of the three major zones (subauroral, auroral, polar cap), the range of activity is divided into four classifications: quiet, unsettled, active, storm. The actual parameter used for reporting and forecasting magnetic activity is a daily index. It is known as DRX and is the average of the hourly ranges (maximum minus minimum during each hour) in the X (northward) component of the magnetic field intensity for a day (the UT [or GMT] day), ie DRX for the zone is the mean of 24 values. Because this averaging process has the effect of smoothing (filtering) the more rapid fluctuations in the field, the qualitative descriptors are defined rather differently than for the short-term forecasts. Units are nanoteslas (nT).
|Below are soft X-ray solar images. Bright spots indicate active regions or flares. Click the image to see real-time .gif movies of the sun. (from SOHO: http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/ )|
Below is the latest solar image from SDO (solar dynamics observatory) at an AIA wavelength of 171 (Go here for more images and detail: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/)
Click the image for a larger view...amazing detail!
ABOVE: Latest solar wind data
BELOW: Last 12 hours animated solar wind data
A-INDICES FROM BOULDER CO., FREDERICKSBURG VA. AND COLLEGE AK.
The chart below is updated every 15 minutes at 1, 16, 31, and 46 minutes past the hour. Boulder, Colorado and Fredericksburg, Virginia are mid-latitude stations. College, Alaska is a high-latitude station. Estimated Planetary is a combined measure of several mid- and high-latitude stations. (Source : http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ )
LONG RANGE LOW-BAND FORECAST ???
|Below is an EXCEL chart showing how the A index changes
relative to sunspot numbers from 1932 till present. Created from raw
data downloaded from:
RED line- Smoothed Monthly Sunspot count, GREEN (fill)-Monthly Mean Ap number, Blue line- Ap moving average.
Notice how the geomagnetic activity seems to be lowest (low Ap) just at the beginning of the up-cycle of each sunspot cycle. This would suggest that geomagnetic conditions are likely to be most quiet during years 2007-2010.
|The EXCEL chart below was created by Jerry VE6TL
and really shows how the current cycle 24 is 'way behind schedule" !! The
arrows are all 5 years long and it is clear that by now we should be 1/2
to 1/3 up the next cycle but we are only now just starting to come up.
Jerry built this chart from the NRC dataset
Static (QRN) got you down....why can't he copy me????? Maybe he has high QRN !!!
Here are some links to show lightning activity in different parts of the world:
North America: http://www.lightningstorm.com
CURRENT LIGHTNING AROUND THE WORLD
Lightning stroke positions are shown as coloured dots which "cool down" from blue for the most recent (occurring within the last 10 min) through green and yellow to red for the oldest (30-40 minutes earlier).
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