NASDAQ-
As you all know, the terrorist attacks on September 11 hit intangible
objects too, namely our markets. I wrote this market commentary
right after the attack, but it still applies. I would strongly
recommend avoiding the airline stocks, hotel stocks, travel vacation
stocks, financial stocks, insurance stocks, or any other stock where its
industry will see an effect by the attack by the change of consumer
spending.
So is that all stocks? Well, yes and no. The
rollover effect does occur, but I think the public will spend their money
one way or another. If they don't go on vacations, they may buy more
clothes or eat out more. In fact, JCPenney just announced that their sales
in September exceeded expectations.
Industries where we will see good growth will be
in defense stocks, communications stocks, certain health care stocks, and
any other companies that are in some way or another linked to the US
military. I believe these are the industries to invest in at least the
next year or so. Personally, I think at least communication stocks have
seen their lows so I reiterate buying Motorola.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Feds passed a
huge tax cut, the Feds have dropped interest rates again (7th time this
year), the economic slowdown has been going on for nearly 18 months, the
Feds just pumped another $100+ BILLION into our economy, and we are in
war. All positive signs for economic growth. Surprisingly, destruction is
good for an economy (to a certain extent). Also, for every dollar the Feds
pump into the economy, it is felt between 2.5 to 4 times (or $1=$2.50 to
$4). Therefore, essentially, we have just seen another $250-$400 BILLION
dollars enter our economy, not to mention the tax rebates and tax
cuts.
The only red flag I see in our future is how the
American public reacts to this attack. If, in fact, they do cut spending
way back, and their confidence is dwindled, this downturn may not be over
yet. Unfortunately, even with all the positive indicators, the consumers
have the last word on whether this is the end of our bear market.
Warren Buffet, one of the most accurate analysts
in America, says that we are most likely heading into a deep
recession. I believe him over most everyone else because he has his
money invested where his mouth is. He has not become the richest man
in the world by accident or sheer coincidence.
"...And that's the way she looks from this
chair today."
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MOT-
Motorola announced today that third quarter earnings were in line with
estimates, which is down 75% from one year ago. The stock will
probably take a beating in the near future, but I believe the price will
rebound relatively quickly. Besides being in the top three in
semiconductors, cell phones, and wireless, Motorola also plays an active
role with the U.S. Military. Therefore, Motorola has become my first
buy choice for this month, after the sharp decline in price in the next
week or so. |
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GX-
"...so I recommend keep buying more shares if the stock
price keeps going down, because they will not declare Chapter 11."
This was my quote from last month. Well, I take that back. In
hard times like this, the ethics (or lack thereof) of companies are
beginning to show. Global Crossing's CEO has repeatedly praised the
company, yet he sold his stock in the company. Other managers have
done the same. The recent numbers show that GX's assets equal their
liabilities, so GX and its shareholders have no equity... they own
nothing. One of GX's largest partners, Exodus Communications,
recently filed Chapter 11. GX is talking about merging with Asia
Global Crossing in an effort to ease its financial strains. With the
merger, GX will have its fifth CEO since 1998... another pessimistic sign
for the company. Even though they are huge and have state-of-the-art
equipment, GX has bad ethics, bad management, and bad numbers.
Therefore, my recommendation at this point in time is sell. I may
recommend buying GX a few months down the road, but right now I believe
money can be better invested elsewhere.
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GTNR-
With the attack on the World Trade Center, businesses are afraid to
send their employees on business trips for meetings. Businesses like
Gentner have really skyrocketed since then, because Gentner allows
businesses to conduct meetings cross-country without traveling. At
this point, it is hard to determine if Gentner will continue to climb or
if it has seen its growth for the near future. If the stock dips
down below 13ish, I recommend a buy. If you already own some, my
suggestion would be to place a stop order at a price where you feel would
be a comfortable profit. That way, if the stock does continue to
climb, you still own it. If it drops, you made a profit. |
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MON-
Monsanto is a good solid company that has market share in the agricultural
industry. They have superior products in seed and chemicals, both
items farmers rely on for a crop. Don't expect to get rich quick
with Monsanto, but it is a slow and steady climber and may be very
profitable in a year's time. There's a strong support line at 32,
and a resistance line at 35. |
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