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Week ending October 5, 2001

IN SUMMARY STOCKS COMMODITIES
BUYS... MOT, MON Corn, Wheat, Coffee, Cotton, Lumber
SELLS... GX Oats, Palladium
HOLDS... GTNR  
WATCH CLOSELY...   Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, Note/Bond Spread

          STOCKS
 
NASDAQ As you all know, the terrorist attacks on September 11 hit intangible objects too, namely our markets.  I wrote this market commentary right after the attack, but it still applies.  I would strongly recommend avoiding the airline stocks, hotel stocks, travel vacation stocks, financial stocks, insurance stocks, or any other stock where its industry will see an effect by the attack by the change of consumer spending. 

So is that all stocks? Well, yes and no. The rollover effect does occur, but I think the public will spend their money one way or another. If they don't go on vacations, they may buy more clothes or eat out more. In fact, JCPenney just announced that their sales in September exceeded expectations.  

Industries where we will see good growth will be in defense stocks, communications stocks, certain health care stocks, and any other companies that are in some way or another linked to the US military. I believe these are the industries to invest in at least the next year or so. Personally, I think at least communication stocks have seen their lows so I reiterate buying Motorola.  

Looking at the bigger picture, the Feds passed a huge tax cut, the Feds have dropped interest rates again (7th time this year), the economic slowdown has been going on for nearly 18 months, the Feds just pumped another $100+ BILLION into our economy, and we are in war. All positive signs for economic growth. Surprisingly, destruction is good for an economy (to a certain extent). Also, for every dollar the Feds pump into the economy, it is felt between 2.5 to 4 times (or $1=$2.50 to $4). Therefore, essentially, we have just seen another $250-$400 BILLION dollars enter our economy, not to mention the tax rebates and tax cuts. 

The only red flag I see in our future is how the American public reacts to this attack. If, in fact, they do cut spending way back, and their confidence is dwindled, this downturn may not be over yet. Unfortunately, even with all the positive indicators, the consumers have the last word on whether this is the end of our bear market. 

Warren Buffet, one of the most accurate analysts in America, says that we are most likely heading into a deep recession.  I believe him over most everyone else because he has his money invested where his mouth is.  He has not become the richest man in the world by accident or sheer coincidence.  

"...And that's the way she looks from this chair today."

 


MOT- Motorola announced today that third quarter earnings were in line with estimates, which is down 75% from one year ago.  The stock will probably take a beating in the near future, but I believe the price will rebound relatively quickly.  Besides being in the top three in semiconductors, cell phones, and wireless, Motorola also plays an active role with the U.S. Military.  Therefore, Motorola has become my first buy choice for this month, after the sharp decline in price in the next week or so.

 

 


GX- "...so I recommend keep buying more shares if the stock price keeps going down, because they will not declare Chapter 11."  This was my quote from last month.  Well, I take that back.  In hard times like this, the ethics (or lack thereof) of companies are beginning to show.  Global Crossing's CEO has repeatedly praised the company, yet he sold his stock in the company.  Other managers have done the same.  The recent numbers show that GX's assets equal their liabilities, so GX and its shareholders have no equity... they own nothing.  One of GX's largest partners, Exodus Communications, recently filed Chapter 11.  GX is talking about merging with Asia Global Crossing in an effort to ease its financial strains.  With the merger, GX will have its fifth CEO since 1998... another pessimistic sign for the company.  Even though they are huge and have state-of-the-art equipment, GX has bad ethics, bad management, and bad numbers.  Therefore, my recommendation at this point in time is sell.  I may recommend buying GX a few months down the road, but right now I believe money can be better invested elsewhere.


 

GTNR- With the attack on the World Trade Center, businesses are afraid to send their employees on business trips for meetings.  Businesses like Gentner have really skyrocketed since then, because Gentner allows businesses to conduct meetings cross-country without traveling.  At this point, it is hard to determine if Gentner will continue to climb or if it has seen its growth for the near future.  If the stock dips down below 13ish, I recommend a buy.  If you already own some, my suggestion would be to place a stop order at a price where you feel would be a comfortable profit.  That way, if the stock does continue to climb, you still own it.  If it drops, you made a profit.


 

MON- Monsanto is a good solid company that has market share in the agricultural industry.  They have superior products in seed and chemicals, both items farmers rely on for a crop.  Don't expect to get rich quick with Monsanto, but it is a slow and steady climber and may be very profitable in a year's time.  There's a strong support line at 32, and a resistance line at 35.

 

 


COMMODITY LOWS

COMMENTS
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CORN As I mentioned last month, I thought corn would drop at least to 220.  In fact, it dropped twice that far.  For this next month, I project corn to meet the 50% retracement at 220.  Once it meets the retracement, I expect the corn market to fall for a long distance.  Not only is corn harvest in full swing with some record yields, but technical indicators favor this view also.  Looking at the weekly cart (below the daily chart), corn prices have made a pennant once again, and have broken though the bottom of it last week.  Many times, the price will return and flirt with the support line that it crossed, which is at 220 on the weekly chart (that number sound familiar?)  After the retracement at 220, I expect corn prices to fall a lot, because the weekly charts usually take precedence over the daily charts.  According to technical trading on the weekly chart, corn prices should fall to about 183.  220 to 183, you do the math.  

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OATS Oats are climbing fast and don't seem to be halting.  When they finally quit climbing as rapidly, I recommend buying a put or investing in the futures in a spread with wheat or corn, take your pick.  Both spreads are much more narrow than they should be.  I favor the wheat spread over the corn spread because I mentioned above, I think corn is going down to 183, which is about the price oats are right now.  The corn spread usually is about $1 difference, and the wheat spread is usually about $2 difference.
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SOYBEANS "There's a possible head and shoulders in July and August which indicates it could drop to 450."  Last month's prediction was correct, and this is the ideal picture of a head and shoulders.  The three top circles are the head and the two shoulders.  The neck is the single vertical line from the head down to the downward sloping line (the base of the neck).  The double vertical line is the same distance as the single vertical line, which places the projected target price at 450.  When this price is met, close your position and wait for the next pattern to form.
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WHEAT Price is extremely low, but has climbed about a dime recently.  The wheat/oats spread is very narrow, and may be a good purchase.  Spreads are always more stable with less risk than futures markets or single options in a given commodity.  One possibility is to buy a wheat call and an oats put, and right away sell the option to the commodity that doesn't move.  You are almost guaranteed to make money that way, though I regret to state that because that will be the one time that it doesn't work. 
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LIVE CATTLE Watch.  LC has no apparent pattern at the moment.  The FC-LC spread indicates a possible buy, but I'm not sure which direction LC is going.  If you do get in live cattle now, I recommend the FC-LC spread.
chart LIVE CATTLE/ PORK BELLIES SPREAD Watch.
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COFFEE Coffee is making new 25+ year lows as we speak.  The channel appears to be narrowing, so I am anticipating a move approaching within the next couple months.  The coffee season is beginning soon too, so frost scares or undesired planting conditions may influence the market some.  One positive aspect with this decline is that coffee has been slowly declining for the last 18 months with little volatility.  Therefore, options are cheap!  Using the 50% retracement rule, December coffee should at least hit 80 if it makes its move by then.  I recommend buying a March Call at 80 or lower, and if you have the money, buy a March futures contract.  When the futures reaches 80, sell futures and keep the call just in case the price keeps climbing.  I'm predicting that once the price does start to climb, it will move quite rapidly based on historical charts.
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COTTON Cotton has been dropping for the last several months.  It has hit near 30 year lows.  Historically cotton isn't as volatile as coffee, but I think a 52 call or lower is a wise choice based on the 50% retracement rule.  Cotton has dropped to 31, so I recommend buying futures because the price is $1 from 30 year lows.  If the futures price breaks through the 30 year support line, sell futures and watch for a base to form.
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LUMBER Lumber is very volatile and is a risky commodity.  If you invest in it, it looks like lumber may make a 50% retracement to about 273.  Buy a call, and if it doesn't make a move in the next couple weeks, sell the call and take a modest loss.  
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OJ Watch.
chart HEATING OIL/ UNLEADED GAS SPREAD Watch.
chart 10-YEAR T-NOTE/ 30-YEAR T-BOND SPREAD If hits 0 again, Buy 10-Yr T-Note, Sell 30-Yr T-Bond because we know that it will not remain at 0.  It has to be in positive ground due to economics.

 

 

COMMODITY HIGHS

COMMENTS
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FEEDER CATTLE FC appear to be starting to become overbought.  I think FC will continue to climb for another week or so, and then tumble.  A pattern hasn't really formed yet on the charts, so at this point it is hard to know.  The spread between LC and FC indicates that FC could go down.  I believe FC will fall, I just don't know when yet.  Possibly as soon as the end of the week.
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LEAN HOGS Watch.  No apparent pattern.
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PORK BELLIES Watch.
chart EUROYEN The Euroyen may be an excellent purchase.  Currently the price of the Euroyen is 99.910.  It cannot climb higher than 100, so you know the maximum you can lose if you buy futures, except for the fact that the Euroyen is based on the Japanese Yen.  One contract only costs about $300 and each tick is about a $20 yield.  Since the EY has been in a sideways channel for the last 6 months, options will be cheap if you choose to go that route.
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10-YEAR T-NOTE Watch
chart PALLADIUM It is currently on its way south, but it has a long way to go.  It would be a good selling opportunity.