WTNT25 KNHC 062030
TCMAT5
HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
2100Z TUE NOV 06 2001
 
AT 4 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  65.3W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  30 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 250SE 250SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  65.3W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  67.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 30.5N  60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  

000
FXUS63 KARX 062030
AFDLSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CST TUE NOV 6 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE CHANCE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO KANSAS.

MODELS PRESENTING VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE
THE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THE WEAK
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. BY LATE TONIGHT THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD ONLY IMPACT
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
NOW BUT THE MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GET DRAWN NORTH FOR CLOUDS TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT. THERE WERE
SOME CLOUDS THAT FORMED ALONG THE FRONT LAST NIGHT OVER MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTAS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A
LOW TO SPIN UP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE. WILL
MAKE A COUPLE OF MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EAST SECTIONS WHICH
MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES ALMOST 10 DEGREES AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE A DECENT SWATH OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST DILEMMA HERE IS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY SNOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST INTRODUCE ALL SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SECTIONS WITH A MIX
NORTH OF KLSE. NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION BAND
WITH ALL THE THICKNESS CRITERIA POINTING TO A ALL LIQUID SOLUTION.
WILL START TO TREND THE FORECAST BACK TO THIS BY INDICATING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE AREAS WHERE SNOW WAS ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. A GOOD GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR A
BRIEF WHILE THURSDAY MORNING. GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING THE WIND SPEEDS TO COME DOWN SO MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE WIND ADVERBS IN THE FORECAST.

.LSE...NONE.

SI

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