For many purposes it is important to estimate the value of the sunspot number up to a solar cycle in advance. For example, in planning High Frequency (HF) communication links, before making investment decisions, it is important to estimate what frequencies will be able to be supported by the ionosphere in the future. Predictions of sunspot number are also very important in planning space-related activities and NASA are very interested in such predictions.In more detail, the table below shows observed sunspot numbers (12 month smoothed) from 1995, followed by predicted values up to the year 2009. The values listed in the table with a qualifier "e" means that the value is based partly on observed and partly on predicted values. Values in the table earlier than these values are totally observed; later values are totally predicted.
IPS also has a mailing list by which you can receive updated sunspot number predictions each month.
ISES OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services Issued on May 02 2001 ------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 24.2 23.0 22.1 20.6 19.2 18.2 17.0 15.4 13.4 12.1 11.3 10.8 1996 10.4 10.1 9.7 8.4 8.0 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.4 1997 10.5 11.0 13.5 16.5 18.3 20.3 22.6 25.0 28.3 31.8 35.0 39.0 1998 43.7 48.9 53.4 56.5 59.4 62.5 65.5 67.8 69.5 70.5 73.0 77.9 1999 82.6 84.6 83.8 85.4 90.4 93.0 94.4 97.5 102.3 107.7 110.9 111.0 2000 112.8 116.6 119.8 120.7 118.9 118.6 119.6 118.4 116.1 114.4 113.5e112.9e ( 1) ( 3) 2001 110.1e107.0e106.3e106.7e107.0e107.0e107.4e108.5e108.7e107.5e106.7 104.7 ( 5) ( 7) ( 9) (11) (13) (15) (17) (19) (21) (23) 2002 102.7 100.5 98.3 96.0 93.7 91.3 88.9 86.4 83.9 81.3 78.8 76.3 2003 73.7 71.1 68.6 66.1 63.6 61.1 58.6 56.2 53.8 51.5 49.2 47.0 2004 44.8 42.6 40.6 38.5 36.6 34.7 32.8 31.0 29.3 27.7 26.1 24.6 2005 23.1 21.7 20.4 19.1 17.9 16.7 15.6 14.6 13.6 12.7 11.8 11.0 2006 10.2 9.4 8.7 8.1 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.1 2007 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.1 8.2 9.5 11.2 13.3 15.6 18.3 21.3 2008 25.0 29.0 33.2 37.6 42.1 46.8 51.6 56.4 61.3 66.1 71.0 75.8 2009 80.6 85.2 89.8 94.2 98.5 102.6 106.5 110.3 113.8 117.2 120.3 123.2 ============================================================================ ----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 81.3 80.5 79.9 78.9 78.0 77.3 76.6 75.6 74.3 73.6 73.1 72.8 1996 72.6 72.4 72.2 71.4 71.2 71.5 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.6 72.2 72.6 1997 72.6 72.9 74.4 76.2 77.4 78.7 80.2 81.9 84.2 86.8 89.2 92.3 1998 96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9 1999 131.5 133.4 132.7 134.2 139.2 141.8 143.2 146.4 151.2 156.8 160.0 160.1 2000 162.0 165.9 169.2 170.1 168.2 167.9 169.0 167.7 165.4 163.6 162.7e162.1e ( 1) ( 3) 2001 159.2e156.0e155.3e155.7e156.0e156.0e156.4e157.6e157.8e156.5e155.7 153.7 ( 5) ( 7) ( 9) (11) (13) (15) (17) (19) (21) (23) 2002 151.6 149.4 147.2 144.8 142.5 140.1 137.7 135.2 132.8 130.2 127.8 125.3 2003 122.9 120.4 118.0 115.7 113.4 111.1 108.9 106.7 104.6 102.6 100.7 98.8 2004 97.0 95.2 93.6 91.9 90.4 89.0 87.5 86.2 84.9 83.8 82.7 81.6 2005 80.6 79.6 78.8 77.9 77.1 76.4 75.7 75.1 74.5 73.9 73.4 72.9 2006 72.4 72.0 71.6 71.2 70.9 70.8 70.7 70.5 70.4 70.3 70.1 69.6 2007 69.8 69.9 70.1 70.3 70.7 71.3 72.0 73.0 74.3 75.7 77.4 79.4 2008 81.9 84.7 87.8 91.2 94.8 98.6 102.7 106.9 111.3 115.7 120.3 124.9 2009 129.5 134.0 138.6 143.0 147.4 151.5 155.5 159.4 163.0 166.5 169.7 172.6 ============================================================================This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from the Sunspot Index Data Center (http://www.oma.be/KSB-ORB/SIDC/). Monthly values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 23/24. Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values are used up to this time. All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are best described as equivalent solar flux values. An estimate is made of the tolerance for the prediction for those values marked 'e' and this is given in brackets below these values. Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://www.ips.gov.au/mail-lists/ For more information please contact the centre at asfc@ips.gov.au -----------------------------------------------------------------------------OBSERVED MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 1995 24.2 29.9 31.1 14.0 14.5 15.6 14.5 14.3 11.8 21.1 9.0 10.0 1996 11.5 4.4 9.2 4.8 5.5 11.8 8.2 14.4 1.6 0.9 17.9 13.3 1997 5.7 7.6 8.7 15.5 18.5 12.7 10.4 24.4 51.3 22.8 39.0 41.2 1998 31.9 40.3 54.8 53.4 56.3 70.7 66.6 92.2 92.9 55.5 74.0 81.9 1999 62.0 66.3 68.8 63.9 106.3 137.4 113.5 93.7 70.9 116.4 132.7 86.4 2000 90.2 112.3 138.2 125.3 120.8 124.9 169.1 130.5 109.9 100.1 106.5
Copyright © 1998 by Richard Thompson for IPS Radio & Space Services, Sydney, Australia. All rights reserved.Comments or suggestions can be directed to richard@ips.gov.au
Background / Richard / Observed and Predicted SSN / 950503 / richard@ips.gov.au